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Geopolitics

How The Kurdish Question Has Come To A Make-Or-Break Moment

Stunning reports of positive exchanges between the long imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Turkish government, coupled with the collapse of the Syrian regime, are reshaping the dynamics for the Kurds scattered across the Middle East. But beware of betrayal.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

How Russia Adjusts Its “Hybrid” Energy War For Maximum Impact

It is a gas and electricity war that extends from Moldova to Slovakia to Finland, with very real consequences for millions, which is ultimately a reflection of how Russia is waging a hybrid war with any means to bring both Ukraine and Europe to its knees.

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Geopolitics

NATO, But No Membership — That’s The Ukraine Security Deal Putin Could Accept

The debate over a possible ceasefire in Ukraine has shifted from territorial defense to securing guarantees for Kyiv. A new formula that involves NATO might be the most realistic hope now that Trump is arriving at the White House.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Why Putin Suddenly Looks So Vulnerable

While Russia had to negotiate with former Syrian rebels for the withdrawal of around 500 Russian soldiers trapped in Damascus, Vladimir Putin remained silent on the crushing defeat he suffered in Syria. Instead, he has threatened the West, as if to show he is not weakened by the fall of his ally Assad.

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Geopolitics

Macron In Djibouti: Facing The End Of France’s Military Legacy In Africa

Djibouti, where the French president is visiting, remains home to a French military base with 1,500 soldiers, making it the largest in Africa following a string of setbacks for France in the Sahel, Chad and Senegal. France’s Africa policy is in need of reinvention.

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Economy Future Geopolitics

Blood Minerals? Why The Democratic Republic Of Congo Is Suing Apple

Kinshasa is suing Apple in France and Belgium for “complicity” in the use of rare minerals pillaged by armed groups to build their products. Apple denies the accusations and guarantees traceability, but the case highlights the fragile balance of power in Silicon Valley’s global supply chains.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

The Simple Message In Russian General’s Assassination: Ukraine Will Not Give Up

The unprecedented assassination of the head of the Russian army’s chemical weapons division is an act of war that is hard for Ukraine’s allies to defend. Still, Ukrainians can’t be faulted for fighting for the nation’s very existence, especially as the West shows signs of slowing down its support.

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Geopolitics

Why The West Is Talking To Syria’s New Leaders — For Now

The Americans already have direct contact, and the French are arriving tomorrow. While remaining “vigilant” about the Islamist nature of Syria’s new rulers, Western nations are reestablishing ties with Damascus to support a return to stability. Turkey, however, is already one step ahead.

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Geopolitics

The Liberated Prisons Of Syria Expose Our Own Weakness On Human Rights

Syrian prisons have been opened, unveiling a grim parade of horrors. The emotions are intense, yet much was already known about Assad’s machinery of death — and still, the world could do nothing. The defense of human rights ends where sovereignty begins.

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Geopolitics

Taking Down Tyrants — Can Syria Learn From The Arab World’s Past Mistakes?

The direction of Syria’s new rulers remains uncertain, but examples of transitions in Iraq, Egypt, Libya or Tunisia after the fall of their dictators highlight the pitfalls to avoid. Will Syria be able to escape them?

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Geopolitics

Syria, The Middle East’s Unfortunate Battleground

Taking advantage of the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Turkey, the United States and Israel separately carried out airstrikes on targets in different areas of the country, each with its own agenda. The reclaiming Syria’s sovereignty will be one of the most important and complex challenges facing the country’s new rulers.

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Geopolitics

The Fall Of Assad: Winners, Losers, Known Unknowns

We must first recognize the joy of the Syrian people at the fall of a brutal regime that ruled for more than half a century. Yet, there’s also major geopolitical stakes in this highly sensitive region, with its losers — Russia and Iran — and its winners, foremost among them Erdogan’s Turkey. And a ton of uncertainty.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics special series Trump And The World

Trump Heads To Paris With Ukraine Hoping For A Notre-Dame Miracle

The reopening of Notre-Dame in Paris, with the participation of Donald Trump on his first foreign trip since being reelected, has turned into a diplomatic event where everyone will want to engage with the president-elect. Ukraine is at the top of the agenda.

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Geopolitics

What The Narges Mohammadi Release Says About Iran’s Place In The World Right Now

Journalist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi was released from prison in Iran yesterday, but only for three weeks. This raises questions about the Iranian regime’s strategy following a series of regional setbacks and on the eve of Donald Trump’s arrival at the White House.

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Geopolitics

Yoon Power Grab — South Korea’s Lesson In How A Democracy Preserves Itself

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol shocked and enraged the country on Tuesday by declaring martial law and suspending civil liberties. The power grab quickly unraveled following democratic outcry, with lawmakers and citizens calling for the discredited leader to resign.

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Economy Future Geopolitics

What Unites Biden And Trump? An “Obsession” With Blocking China’s Access To AI

Before leaving office, the Biden administration yesterday imposed its toughest sanctions yet to deny China access to AI chips. This long-standing policy will undoubtedly continue under Donald Trump, a rare point of continuity.

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Geopolitics

Syria’s Civil War Reignites — And Panic Spreads All Across The Middle East

The Syrian rebels’ surprise offensive allowed them to capture Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, in just three days. Already in crisis since Oct. 7, 2023, the Middle East is now facing a whole new level of turmoil.

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Geopolitics

Iran? Syria? Trump? The Next Twists On Netanyahu’s War Path After Lebanon Ceasefire

The Israeli Prime Minister has been clear: The ceasefire in Lebanon will allow him to focus on Iran and on Syria, through which Hezbollah’s weapons are transported. But the underlying factors are Iran’s nuclear program and Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

France’s Weak Attempt To Justify Its Reversal On Netanyahu Arrest Warrant

France caused a stir by declaring that the Israeli leader enjoyed “immunity” from the ICC arrest warrant. It’s a legal statement, but also a highly political one, as Israel has threatened to remove France from the Lebanese Ceasefire Monitoring Committee. Human rights activists are appalled.

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Geopolitics

Netanyahu’s Real Motive For Lebanon Ceasefire? To Keep Free Hand In Gaza

Israel and Lebanon have reached a U.S. and France-brokered ceasefire agreement. It’s an intricate agreement that requires a withdrawal of Israeli forces within 60 days, contingent on Hezbollah retreating north. And it shifts focus, allowing the war in Gaza to continue unabated.

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Geopolitics

Romania’s Election Shock — A Glimpse Of Where The Rest Of Europe Stands On Ukraine

The surprise in the first round of the Romanian presidential election came from far-right, pro-Russian candidate Călin Georgescu. How could such a figure emerge seemingly out of nowhere? TikTok certainly played a role, but so did fears of the Ukraine war spreading. It’s a cautionary tale for all of Europe.

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Geopolitics

Taiwan Backs Kyiv, Moscow Recruits Houthis: And If Trump Pulls Back From The World Now?

The main conflicts today are deeply interconnected. A recent example is Taiwan’s former president urging Washington to prioritize arms shipments to Ukraine over Taiwan, arguing that the credibility of American deterrence is at stake. Will Trump make the connections?

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

ICC Arrest Warrants: Netanyahu’s European Travel Days Are Over

The judges of the International Criminal Court (ICC) have issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He says it’s an antisemitic move, and is backed by the U.S., but France and other EU countries have stated they will respect the warrant, meaning the Israeli leader is now unable to visit these regions.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

The Sudden Ukraine War Escalation Is The Real Start To Trump’s Presidency

Russia is expanding its nuclear doctrine and intensifying strikes on Ukraine, including Thursday’s unprecedented launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile. This is an apparent response to new U.S. authorization of use of its weapons in attacks on Russian territory. All can be traced to the radical White House transition underway.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Undersea Cables Cut In The Baltic, A Perfect Target For Hybrid Warfare

Two undersea communication cables were severed in the Baltic Sea this weekend, prompting Germany’s defense minister to say that “no one believes” it was an accident. Many suspect a new escalation of hybrid warfare in a sea where Russia is the only country not part of NATO.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics special series Trump And The World

UN Fades, Trump Returns: The G20 May Be World’s Best Chance To Avoid The Worst

The United Nations suffers from a lack of effectiveness and declining legitimacy due to a failure to reform. The G20 remains the last forum where opposing powers can still talk to one another. But with the return of Donald Trump and his “America First” policy, what comes next is uncertain.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

No Surrender: Why Joe Biden’s Last-Gasp Support For Ukraine Matters

The U.S. has finally allowed Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles following massive Ukrainian bombings of power infrastructure. Though only two months remain for the Biden administration before the uncertainty of the Trump era begins, the terms of any future negotiations are being fought over now.

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Economy Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics special series Trump And The World

Chinese Ambitions In Latin America Have Caught Washington Sleeping

China has become Latin America’s leading partner, under the nose of the United States, which is busy elsewhere. Xi Jinping inaugurated a Chinese-built megaport in Peru, underscoring Beijing’s growing influence in the region — and the looming showdown with the future Trump administration.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War special series Trump And The World

Could Trump’s Win Lead To Israel Annexing The West Bank?

A prominent figure of Israel’s far-right, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has announced that 2025 will be the year of the West Bank’s annexation. With Donald Trump’s victory, supporters of colonization hope he will back their approach, despite it being contrary to international law.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics

Hubris Of Victory, Everywhere Musk: Reading Tea Leaves On Trump II

The first appointments of Donald Trump’s upcoming administration signal a firm stance on divisive issues like immigration, but the influence of figures like Elon Musk remains uncertain. An analysis of early steps and their implications.

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Israel-Palestine War

Two New Reasons Gaza Peace Is Farther Away Than Ever

Having played a precious though ultimately futile role as mediator, Qatar announced it will step back from Gaza talks as both sides remain uninterested in a ceasefire. And following Trump’s election victory, there’s a notable new appointment to represent Israel in Washington.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War Russia-Ukraine War special series Trump And The World War in Ukraine

Trump’s Win Shakes Global Conflicts: Zelensky On Guard, Netanyahu Gains Ground

The election of Donald Trump has begun affecting global dynamics. In Ukraine, Zelensky fears losing U.S. support and has warned Europe against “suicidal” concessions to Russia. In Israel, Netanyahu stands as the main beneficiary, as Trump’s victory grants him the freedom to pursue his objectives unfettered.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics

Trump, Unchecked: U.S. Foreign Policy With No Adults In The Room

What will Donald Trump’s foreign policy be in his second term? There is no manual for it, but there are a few clues to understand. This isn’t a typical democratic shift: Nothing will be the same, and there will be no guardrails like during his first term.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics

Trump’s Return Marks A New Chapter Of World History — And It Starts With Chaos

Donald Trump’s victory comes in a world that is different from that of 2016. It is more fractured and dangerous. In this context, the European Union, divided and weakened, risks becoming Trump’s first casualty.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics special series

For Beijing, Trump May Be The Lesser Of Two Evils

Republicans and Democrats agree on just one thing: being tough with China. That’s why Chinese leaders are not expressing a preference in the U.S. presidential election. Yet some in Beijing are leaning toward Donald Trump and what they see as his penchant for “pragmatism” and “deals” between China and the United States.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics

U.S. Election And Europe: Why The Era Of “Geopolitical Outsourcing” Is Over

While the Western establishment is hoping for a Kamala Harris victory, either way fundamental changes are coming to the Transatlantic relationship that Europe can no longer evade.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War Russia-Ukraine War War in Ukraine

Talkin’ World War III Blues? North Koreans In Ukraine, Iran v. Israel, U.S.-China Heat

The United States’ confirmation of the presence of North Korean soldiers alongside the Russians in Ukraine has raised fears of an international escalation. All the more reason to fear that the current local or regional conflicts will gradually turn into global ones.

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Geopolitics

Welcome To The Paris Conference For Lebanon — In All Its Futility

Around 80 countries are taking part in the ‘International Conference in Support of the People and Sovereignty of Lebanon’ in Paris on Thursday. And yet, nobody is even talking about stopping the war.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

“The Smell Of Death Is Everywhere” — A Visit To Gaza, Where Israel’s Only Plan Is More Killing

The director of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees has denounced the treatment of civilians in the Israel-Hamas war. But nothing is stopping this war, not even the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, while the ambiguity continues over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war aims in Gaza.

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Geopolitics

Putin v. Europe: The Fight Gets Dirty In Moldova And Georgia

In Moldova, as in Georgia, pro-Russian forces are trying to prevent a move towards Europe. Sunday’s referendum on EU membership in Moldova was won by the pro-Europeans by a very narrow margin, and the government is talking of Russian interference.

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