-Analysis-
PARIS — This is a war that involves several countries, threatening to deprive millions of energy in the heart of a winter that is already proving to be particularly cold.
There are several separate, parallel issues in this war that are now coming together at a decisive moment for the future of the European continent and beyond as the Russia-Ukraine war continues towards the three-year mark.
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First, there is Moldova, that small and fragile nation of 2.5 million inhabitants, which will be deprived of Russian gas starting after midnight Jan. 1. The company that distributes gas in Moldova is half-owned by Gazprom, the Russian energy giant, a legacy of Soviet times, with a dispute pitting its shareholders against each other.
What could have remained a commercial dispute has morphed into a geopolitical showdown; in a country where one region, Transnistria, has seceded and is home to a Russian contingent, and whose recent elections were marked by Russian interference. Once again, Moldova is being put to the test because of both geography and its choice to lean toward Europe.
The second issue is Ukraine’s decision to stop the transit of Russian gas through its borders, towards certain EU countries. The context of this may surprise you, but over the course of nearly three years of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian gas has continued to be shipped through gas pipelines crossing Ukrainian territory — another Soviet legacy.
Putin orders for Fico?
Europe has largely reduced its dependence on Russian gas, in particular Germany, which was the largest EU buyer. But some countries continue to be supplied despite incentives to stop it. The most affected by Ukraine’s decision is Slovakia, an EU member that has taken a pro-Putin direction under its Prime Minister Robert Fico.
Slovakia is now threatening to stop supplying electricity to Ukraine if the gas stops flowing. The response from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: “Putin ordered Fico to open a new front against Ukraine.”
Poland, a supporter of Zelensky’s government in Kyiv, has committed to compensating Ukraine for all the electricity it lacks; a major commitment at a time when Russian bombings are particularly concentrated on targeting energy infrastructure.
Hybrid war
These crises are of course all linked to the war in Ukraine, with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine sucking in everything in its path.
Armed clashes are only part of the confrontation.
We could also add the case of the cables cut in the Baltic Sea, three in just the last few weeks. The latest is an electric cable connecting Finland to Estonia. The Finnish navy, now a member of NATO, boarded a Russian cargo ship suspected of being the culprit, and is forcibly directing it to a Finnish port. The investigation shows traces of seabed raking over 100 kilometers, which could help prove it was a deliberate act.
This is typical of the type of hybrid war waged by Russia, in which armed clashes are only part of the confrontation. Part of the battle is how it all plays public opinion: depriving people of heating or electricity affects morale. In 2025, this will be a way of waging war that can be as effective as any other.
