-Analysis-
PARIS — Four days after Bashar al-Assad’s regime was toppled, many questions remain about the direction of Syria’s new rulers. The moment is still filled with the emotion of emptied prisons, the reunions of first exiles returning and the simple joy of seeing a tyrant leave.
But the history of other fallen dictatorships in the Arab world reveals the pitfalls Syria must avoid if it hopes to regain some stability after 13 years of civil war. Iraq saw Saddam Hussein fall during the American invasion, Tunisia ousted Ben Ali in the first of the Arab Spring revolutions, followed by Mubarak in Egypt and Gaddafi in Libya.
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Each of these transitions, following the fall of an authoritarian leader, has raised hopes and ended badly. Syria’s new leaders are obviously familiar with this history, which is partly their own, but will they be able to avoid these pitfalls?
Lessons from the region
The case of Iraq, well-known to Abu-Mohammed al-Golani, the new strongman of Damascus, who was recruited there into jihadist ranks, is full of lessons.
The major mistake made by the Americans after toppling Saddam in 2003 was to exclude everyone who had served in the military and administration. The result: they resurfaced in the ranks of the Islamic State, bringing a wave of terror. Syria now faces a similar dilemma after decades of cronyism and nepotism.
The other Iraqi trap is sectarianism.
The other Iraqi trap is sectarianism, and here again, Syria is vulnerable. The Assads come from the Alawite minority, relatives of the Shiites, and many Alawites fear being targeted by acts of vengeance.
The Kurdish question is another issue shared by Iraq and Syria, raising the dual challenge of minority rights and interference from neighboring Turkey. It carries the risk of regional divisions, as seen in post-Gaddafi Libya, which remains fractured 13 years after the dictatorship.
The question of the political system is what derailed transitions in Tunisia and Egypt. Both countries attempted experiments in democratization that quickly unraveled due to the role of the Muslim Brotherhood and political chaos disconnected from people’s everyday lives. In both cases, authoritarianism made a comeback.
Al Golani’s leadership
In Syria, the political balance remains uncertain, even though al-Golani’s Islamist HTC party is dominant. The new ruler of Syria is not a democrat; he claims to have broken with jihadism, but in the Idlib region he controlled before launching his offensive, he wielded an iron-fisted authority that sparked hostile protests.
What balance will he strike with other Syrian factions? What institutions will be established? What role will women, ethnic and religious minorities play? What international alliances will be formed? So far, al-Golani has shown pragmatism, taking care to respect minorities and refraining from imposing restrictions on women. Will he maintain this approach in the long term?
This 40-year-old man with a complex past has undoubtedly studied the experiences of other countries in the region. Syria has no shortage of talent or resources to cover — provided it avoids the pitfalls where all others have failed.
