Welcome To The Paris Conference For Lebanon — In All Its Futility

–Analysis-

PARIS — Around 80 countries are taking part in a Thursday conference in Paris, ambitiously named the “International Conference in Support of the Lebanese People and Sovereignty.” And yet, it’s better to be realistic and not expect much.

Of course, there will be promises of funding for humanitarian aid to bombed-out Lebanon, with an estimated target of $400 million to be raised. This is obviously necessary for a country with a failing state that is once again at war, with a quarter of its population displaced.

But let’s face it, humanitarian aid is a last resort when you’re powerless to stop the war. The reality of the equation is that no one can stop Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s determination to continue the war in Gaza, Lebanon and, tomorrow, Iran. Hezbollah’s missiles that haven’t stopped raining down on Israel guarantee public support for the continuation of the war.

Re-establishing Lebanese sovereignty  

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has just left Israel in yet another failure, another humiliation for this brilliant diplomat in a year of efforts. Blinken will not be attending the Paris Conference; he has moved on to the Gulf.

France, the host of the conference, and Lebanon, represented by its Prime Minister, Najib Mikati (the country has still been without a president for two years), want to push another issue: strengthening the capabilities of the Lebanese army.

The stakes are high: the Lebanese army’s resources and status today are inferior to those of Hezbollah before the war. (Just hours before the conference, reports said three Lebanese government soldiers had been killed Wednesday by an Israeli air strike.)

The “sovereignty” referred to in the title of the conference means re-establishing the national army as the country’s sole defense force, particularly in the south. This requires equipment and men, and therefore funding — but not only that. First and foremost, it requires the political will of the Lebanese, which we doubt exists after years of paralysis by Beirut’s ruling caste.

The world watches powerlessly 

Let’s be under no illusions: 80 countries represented in Paris — and in the absence of Israel and Iran — do not have the power to influence this war. Only the United States could, if it wanted to use its leverage, but with less than two weeks to go before its presidential elections, Washington doesn’t want a crisis with Israel.

The appeal calls for an unconditional ceasefire, the release of hostages and protection of civilians.

The U.S. envoy to Lebanon, Amos Hochstein, was recently in Beirut, and spoke about the implementation of UN Resolution 1701, the benchmark for Lebanon, which has not been applied for …18 years. Hochstein wants it to be extended, which means a lot of negotiating, and therefore a continuation of the war.

This frustration is expressed in an appeal launched Thursday, on the occasion of the Paris Summit, by 139 international NGOs who believe that the region is “on the precipice of even greater devastation.” The appeal calls for an unconditional ceasefire, the release of hostages and detainees, and the protection of civilians.

But the echo of international civil society is unlikely to have any impact on a conference which, while it may have the merit of putting the Lebanese crisis in the spotlight, will have neither the means nor even the ambition to try to put an end to a war that is devastating the nation.