Syria’s Civil War Reignites — And Panic Spreads All Across The Middle East

-Analysis-

PARIS — It’s the war no one expected, arriving without warning in a Middle Eastern context already overwhelmed by other conflicts and other victims.

Barely had the ceasefire been declared in Lebanon when Syria’s never-ending civil war reignited. In just three days, rebels from various factions seized control of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, with little resistance. They continued their advance toward Hama, further south.

Videos show them entering towns abandoned by their defenders. In one such video, authenticated by journalists, Syrian army vehicles are seen speeding away on a highway. On Sunday, Syrian and Russian air forces intervened to slow the rebels’ progress.

The surprise was complete, especially regarding Aleppo — the northern city that the Syrian army, backed by Russian airpower, took years to reclaim in 2016 when it was partially held by anti-Assad rebels. This time, the rebels have captured the entire city.

This swift offensive has sent shockwaves through the region and raises numerous questions.

Who are the rebels?

First question: Who are these rebels? At the center of this offensive is the armed group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Levant Liberation Organization, known by its initials HTS. Until 2016, it was the Syrian branch of al-Qaida, led by Mohammed al-Jolani. He broke ties with al-Qaida and “Syrianized” the group, maintaining an iron grip over the Idlib region in northwestern Syria — the last stronghold of jihadists and rebels since their defeat by the regime of Bashar al-Assad and his allies.

HTS fighters are joined in this offensive by other groups, including the Syrian Liberation Army, the historic rebellion against Assad, which enjoys Turkey’s backing.

In the videos, these fighters are seen wearing new uniforms, equipped with heavy weapons, and using vehicles that suggest significant preparation and support. Attention is turning to Turkey, which remains active in this part of Syria, primarily to counter Syrian and Turkish Kurds.

Why now?

Why did they act now? The explanation could lie in the war waged by Israel, which has significantly weakened Hezbollah and Iranian influence, two of Assad’s key supporters. The other supporter, Russia, is of course preoccupied elsewhere — in Ukraine.

The diplomatic scramble is frantic.

This new regional dynamic has, if not motivated, at least enabled this offensive, which adds complexity to an already intricate global context. Do Assad’s external supporters today have the means and the will to save him once again? As for Israel, does it stand to gain from having new masters in Syria, instead of an adversary it’s known inside out — the Assad dynasty, which has been in power for over 50 years?

The diplomatic scramble is frantic. On Sunday, the Iranian foreign minister was in Damascus, while the Saudi crown prince was in the United Arab Emirates, before returning to meet with Emmanuel Macron, who is visiting Riyadh Monday evening.

The Middle East was already in crisis, now it is in utter turmoil: this war within a war forces all actors to reassess their strategies and ask themselves what is best for them. The destabilization that began a little over a year ago is far from over, and the surprise of the past week will hardly be the last.