–Analysis–
PARIS — There isn’t a corner of the world that isn’t paying close attention to the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. In Beijing, officials are pretending not to pay much attention. China now embodies the “other” superpower and wants to avoid appearing dependent on the outcome of a foreign election — like modest Europeans, I might add.
For the latest news & views from every corner of the world, Worldcrunch Today is the only truly international newsletter. Sign up here.
Yet discussions are intense in China, both on social media and the few permitted spaces, about whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris would be better for China.
Official Chinese commentators are fatalistic: Cracking down on China is the only point of consensus between Republicans and Democrats in the United States. So the outcome won’t make much difference: seen from Beijing, it’s a choice between the lesser of two evils.
Relations between the two giants
And they’re not wrong: We’ve seen U.S. President Joe Biden continue and even amplify the containment policy toward China initiated by Trump during his one term in office. But things aren’t quite that simple. The divisions are not as clear-cut as those over Ukraine or relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. But despite their radically different styles, the presidential candidates have many nuances that may shape the future relationship between the 21st century’s two great rivals.
From Beijing’s view, Harris embodies continuity and predictability — a relationship of intense competition with a clear technological barrier around China’s access to Western advancements. Just a few days ago, the White House published a report on artificial intelligence, clearly explaining that China must be prevented from surpassing the United States in this field.
Trump, for his part, has announced massive tariffs on Chinese products, which could have serious consequences for a Chinese economy struggling to regain momentum. At the same time, Beijing sees him as “pragmatic,” which is a more polite word for transactional, therefore open to “deals,” his specialty.
Support for Taiwan
The Chinese have taken particular note of Trump’s remarks on Taiwan. The former president has repeatedly accused the island claimed by Beijing of “stealing semiconductors” from the United States. Besides being untrue, this claim reveals Trump’s convictionless approach. If Taiwan stole semiconductors, would the U.S. deploy its army to defend this democratic island in the event of a Chinese attack attacks?
Xi and Putin easily impress Trump, who respects “strong men.”
This ambiguity has serious implications for Taiwan’s defense. Even though former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, whom I met recently in Paris, believes support for Taiwan in the U.S. Congress is sufficiently strong and bipartisan to overcome personality differences.
Nevertheless, there is a current of thought in China that favors a Trump victory, believing he would be more open to “deals.” One Chinese businessman even told me that Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Putin easily impress Trump, who respects “strong men.” As we can see, analyses can sometimes take circuitous routes in Beijing and elsewhere.
