-Analysis-
PARIS — It’s hard not to fall into caricature and conclude that Donald Trump’s victory is also a win for autocrats of all kinds. The former — and now future — president of the United States is certainly unpredictable, but his election changes the game at a time of tensions and conflicts like the world hasn’t seen in a long time.
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His return to the White House symbolically marks the end of an era, and, at the risk of seeming excessive, the end of a world already taking on water from all sides: the world of multilateralism born in 1945, at the end of World War II; a world where the American superpower was both the guardian and the patron, for better and for worse.
For Europeans, it brings back an unforgettable image: that of the famous 2018 G7 summit in Quebec, where Trump is seated with his arms crossed, a defiant look in his eyes. Across from him stands German Chancellor Angela Merkel, leaning forward on her hands, surrounded by other Western leaders.
This moment of confrontation, a decisive instant captured by a photographer, is the nightmare that haunts supporters of liberal democracy, as Trump makes a spectacular comeback.
A changed Trump?
Is it the same Donald Trump? The election campaign, marked by verbal aggression and excess, showed that Trump is still… Trump. His personality hasn’t changed. What has changed since 2016, the year of his first election, is the state of the world.
Today, we live with two major wars: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the conflict in the Near and Middle East. That is on top of a U.S.-China rivalry that has only intensified since Trump himself sparked it. In this context, the unpredictability of the future president is anything but reassuring.
To understand what lies ahead, we only need to look at who his preferred interlocutors are. Within the European Union, it’s Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, leader of the Eurosceptics and head of Vladimir Putin’s fan club on the continent. Trump has cited him as an example in his rallies, aligning with the far-right thinkers who have shaped the Republican candidate’s agenda.
Evaluating the consequences
The EU thus stands to be the biggest loser of the U.S. presidential election — or at least the EU as we know it. How Trump handles the war in Ukraine, which he has promised — let’s not forget – to “resolve in 24 hours,” will shape what follows.
Should he cut American support to Ukraine or pressure President Volodymyr Zelensky to negotiate from a weakened position with Moscow, it is all of Europe that will feel the impact and be weakened.
In the Middle East as well, Trump’s return will not calm things down.
The American security guarantee within NATO is now at stake with a man who has previously threatened it, and the trade wars he is stirring will shake Europe.
In the Middle East as well, Trump’s return will not calm things down. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who openly supported the Republican candidate’s victory, is counting on him to give him a free hand in his extensive military campaign in Gaza, Lebanon and especially against Iran.
We are therefore far from finished evaluating the consequences of Trump’s return in the chaos of the world.
