-Analysis-
PARIS – You can also call this the “Trump Effect…”
The U.S. president-elect, who’d vowed to resolve the war in Ukraine within “24 hours” even before taking office, is now associated with its sudden escalation.
On the ground and in rhetoric, tensions have risen sharply, including renewed threats from Moscow involving the ultimate weapon — nuclear arms. On Thursday, Russia reportedly launched an intercontinental ballistic missile at Ukraine on Thursday, another major escalation that sends a strong message to the West.
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This apparent contradiction between Trump’s campaign vows and the current reality might not be a contradiction at all. The surge in tensions is partly driven by the upcoming transition in Washington, as each side seeks to strengthen its position before entering a new phase with an unpredictable president.
However, this escalation also follows its own perilous logic, running the risk of spiraling dangerously out of control.
The latest developments have significantly raised the stakes. Outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden, after months of hesitation, authorized Ukrainian long-range missile strikes on military targets inside Russian territory — an action quickly implemented.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin has expanded the rules of engagement for nuclear weapons. While this isn’t the first time he has wielded such threats since invading Ukraine in February 2022, they continue to generate strong reactions. That was followed by Thursday morning’s report from Ukraine that Moscow had fired a intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for the first time in the war. ICBMs are a weapon designed to deliver nuclear warheads to targets thousands of miles away.
A moment of reckoning seems imminent.
After nearly three years of war, a moment of reckoning seems imminent. Putin has failed in his initial phase, which he expected to resolve in weeks. However, he has regrouped, mobilized Russia’s vast resources for the war effort, and secured support in weapons and ammunition from Iran and manpower from North Korea.
Additionally, the Russian leader has benefited from the West’s struggles to keep up with ammunition supplies, air-defense systems, and delays in decision-making, as exemplified by Joe Biden’s hesitation over weapon authoritization.
Europe caught in the middle
Wars don’t end as long as either side believes it can win. Putin, with more resources, troops, and cynicism than his opponents, is determined to press on, even targeting cities. He is counting on Trump’s future administration, and allies like Hungary’s Viktor Orban, to weaken Ukraine and force them into a deal that acknowledges Russia’s current advantage on the battlefield.
This is a critical time for Ukraine. The Ukrainian resistance faces immense pressure, from Russia’s relentless bombings cutting off electricity and heating for civilians, to the continuous erosion of their positions in the east. Additionally, the anxiety of seeing external support waver adds further stress to their efforts.
Part of Europe is determined not to abandon Ukraine, believing that a victory for Putin would jeopardize European security. However, Ukraine’s supporters, led by Poland, realize they cannot assist Ukraine alone — and must convince the incoming Trump administration that it is not in their interest to force Ukraine’s surrender.
In this complex context, the sudden escalation, including the nuclear threat raised by Putin, cannot be ignored. Still, there is the risk to take it too seriously. The only certainty is that in two months, a new administration will take office in Washington, and the cards will be reshuffled. Until then, the war itself will continue calling the shots.
