How The Kurdish Question Has Come To A Make-Or-Break Moment

-Analysis-

PARIS – The Kurds are the perpetual losers in the recent history of the Middle East, repeatedly courted and then inevitably betrayed.

This is a dynamic that dates back a century. In 1920, the Treaty of Sèvres, which dismantled the Ottoman Empire after World War I, recognized the Kurds’ right to “autonomy” that could lead to statehood. More than 100 years later, more than 40 million Kurds are still waiting, scattered across four countries: Iraq, Iran, Syria, and predominantly Turkey.

Once again, their fate hangs in the balance, with unexpected developments in Turkey and Syria that inspire more mistrust than hope. In both cases, the driving force is the neo-Ottoman ambition of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The other key figure in this geopolitical chess game is Abdullah Öcalan, leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which advocates for a Kurdish state. Öcalan, now 75, has been serving a life sentence in Turkey for 25 years on charges of terrorism.

Abdullah Öcalan’s role

In recent weeks, a tentative dialogue has emerged between Öcalan, from his prison cell, and the Turkish government, which have even involved an ultranationalist party. While nothing definitive has yet been achieved, the very fact of that these exchanges are taking place is quite remarkable. The stated goal is to have the PKK renounce its armed struggle. Yet a broader perspective is needed to fully grasp the significance of this development.

It is of course the collapse of the Syrian regime that has upended the strategic landscape in the region. One area of Syria still eludes the control of Damascus’s new rulers: the northeast, which is controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). These Kurdish fighters are closely tied to Öcalan’s PKK and are actively opposed by Turkey.

Syrian Kurdish leaders themselves are divided

Initial clashes have already pitted them against Turkey’s Syrian allies, but this is merely a prelude to a broader conflict that Ankara could ignite, with the aim of establishing a security zone along the Turkish-Syrian border.

Betrayal risks

The complexity of the situation is before us. If a real dialogue with Öcalan takes shape in Turkey, it could change the dynamics for Syria as well. However Syrian Kurdish leaders themselves are divided between those who see it as an opportunity and those who foresee a darker perspective of civil war in Syria.

It should also be noted that the Kurds in Syria are under American protection, with some 1,500 U.S. soldiers stationed there, and more modestly under France’s protection, after its pivotal role in the war against ISIS starting in 2015.

During his first term, incoming U.S. President Donald Trump had wanted to withdraw American troops from Syria but was dissuaded. What will happen this time? Without this protection, the pro-Kurdish SDF would be more vulnerable to Turkish pressures.

This complexity is the fruit of decades of war, rivalries, and ambitions in a region that has been repeatedly destabilized. The Kurds fear once again bearing the consequences of a reshuffling of the geopolitical cards — where the new Middle East dynamic could lead to the indifference, or even betrayal from those who have vowed to support them.