-Analysis-
PARIS – In Iran, prison doors never open without ulterior motives. In quick succession, two world famous Iranian political prisoners were released: on Wednesday, 2023 Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, and just days earlier, rapper Toomaj Salehi, whose death sentence was overturned last June.
This is certainly not a sign of liberalization. Mohammadi, a 52-year-old journalist imprisoned since 2021, has only been released for three weeks for medical reasons following surgery. She is expected to return to her cell despite her lawyers’ objections regarding her health condition.
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Yet the status of this globally recognized prisoner, whose family resides in France, ensures that everything surrounding her takes on a political dimension — particularly in the context of the wars in the Near and Middle East, where Iran plays a significant role.
Regional setbacks
Iran has faced multiple setbacks in the ongoing regional conflict. Its allies — often referred to as “proxies,” who fight on its behalf — have been significantly weakened by the Israeli military: Hamas in Gaza, and especially Hezbollah in Lebanon, the spearhead of Iranian influence in the Arab world.
Iran has not emerged stronger.
Iran itself has not emerged stronger from its two direct confrontations with Israel; its deterrence capabilities have instead been diminished. The latest blow to Iranian influence came last week when Syrian rebels captured the city of Aleppo, despite Iran’s role as a key protector of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime.
Adding to this bleak picture is the reelection of Donald Trump in the United States, along with his “maximum pressure” doctrine on Tehran, which understandably worries the Iranian regime. Will Trump accept to do what President Joe Biden refused: Give Israel the green light to bomb Iran’s nuclear program facilities?
Syria to Saudi
On the surface, Iran appears to be adopting a more conciliatory stance. The new Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, presents himself as a moderate, open to dialogue with the West. Iran is keeping communication channels open with Sunni Saudi Arabia, a U.S. ally, and is now even releasing — temporarily — the supreme symbol that is Mohammadi.
Few will believe in a pragmatic conversion of the regime, either in terms of Iranian society and the treatment of women, or in its regional activism. Yet those who hope for a reduction in conflicts rather than a widespread war are paying close attention to all signals.
The situation in Syria likely holds one of the keys to this equation.
The situation in Syria likely holds one of the keys to this equation. The paradox is that the Assad regime, despite its past crimes, is seen by some as preferable to Islamist rebels, even if they have distanced themselves from the jihadist network. An Assad free from Iranian influence is one of the scenarios being discussed.
One can obviously be glad that Mohammadi was able to leave her prison; but for the Iranian gesture to hold value, she should not return in three weeks. She should become a free woman, with freedom of movement and speech. Otherwise, a humanitarian gesture sadly does not signify political change.
