-Analysis-
PARIS – It’s a surprising and somewhat counterintuitive statement: Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s former president, has urged the United States to prioritize arms deliveries to Ukraine over Taiwan, even as the island nation faces threats from China.
Tsai’s reasoning is that Ukraine’s resistance to the Russian invasion serves as a deterrent to China’s ambitions, whereas a collapse in Ukraine could embolden Beijing to take action against Taiwan.
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The reasoning is not new: many have argued that the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Kabul on August 15, 2021, may have emboldened Vladimir Putin to decide to invade Ukraine six months later.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the Taiwanese have been closely monitoring both its military and political aspects. However, this marks the first instance of a prominent figure — former President Tsai Ing-wen, who enjoys the freedom of speech her successor lacks — addressing the potential repercussions for Asia if the U.S. were to abandon Ukraine, as hinted at by the future administration of Donald Trump.
Republicans in Congress
Tsai was responding to U.S. Admiral Samuel Paparo, who warned that arms shipments to Ukraine could compromise the United States’ preparedness for a potential conflict in Asia.
Thus for Tsai, the best strategy to counter China’s threat is clear: support Ukraine.
Abandoning Ukraine to Russia, a China ally, could damage U.S. influence.
The words from Tsai were largely targeting incoming Republican lawmakers, aware that Taiwan has strong bipartisan support in Congress. Pointing out Trump’s hostile stance on Ukraine and ambiguous position on Taiwan, Tsai emphasizes that U.S. credibility in deterrence is at stake in these two hotspots.
She warns that abandoning Ukraine to Russia, a China ally, could have global repercussions and damage U.S. influence in regions crucial to its interests.
Houthis join Russian
This is not the only example of interconnected conflicts. Recently, a North Korean contingent was seen responding to Ukraine’s incursions into Russian territory. Now, it appears that Yemeni and Nepali auxiliaries are joining Russian forces.
The Financial Times reported that Houthi fighters from Yemen, allies of Iran, have been recruited by Moscow. They are attracted by the prospect of employment and are now part of the Russian army, helping Vladimir Putin avoid an unpopular general mobilization in Russia. The Houthis, known for launching missile attacks in the Red Sea, now serve as military auxiliaries.
Russia has built two Iranian Shahed drone factories on its territory, and these drones are immediately sent towards Ukraine. Over the weekend, around 500 drone strikes, mostly Shaheds, were launched against Ukrainian cities.
These connections between major conflict zones, whether material, like between Iran and Russia, or political, as with Taiwan, demonstrate that a miscalculation in one conflict can have far-reaching consequences on another continent. The future Trump administration has been forewarned.
