-Analysis-
PARIS — Like every four years, Europeans are anxiously awaiting the verdict of the American ballot box! There is obviously a lot at stake for the member countries of the European Union, given the natural hostility of one of the two candidates, Donald Trump, to the old continent.
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But Europeans are deluding themselves if they think they’ll just be able to breathe a sigh of relief if Kamala Harris wins. Admittedly, the relationship will be less brutal, and the Democratic candidate is genuinely loyal to U.S. alliances. But Europe will not be at the core of America’s strategic vision, whoever wins: those days are over.
This is how one should read a very significant sentence tweeted this weekend by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, today one of Europe’s most influential leaders. “The era of geopolitical outsourcing is over,” he wrote.
It’s a phrase that deserves an explanation.
French and German absence
What the Polish leader means is that Europe can no longer afford to make its security dependent on the United States, and therefore on the uncertainties of every presidential election. It’s a simple statement, but one that carries weight.
Tusk is taking up the torch of European sovereignty
Poland is currently the country which makes the most efforts for its defense, with some 4% of its GDP, twice as much as France or Germany, for instance. This is due to its history and geography, neighboring Ukraine and the war imposed by Russia.
A former President of the European Council, Donald Tusk is taking up the torch of European sovereignty, as France and Germany have become inaudible because of their domestic political fits of nerves, and are taking it on less and less well.
Orban in Tbilisi
The difficulty is that, while the European Union has come a long way since the rude awakening of the Russian invasion of February 2022, it is far from there and, above all, far from being united on its objectives.
We had a glimpse of these fractures last week, following the confiscation of the Georgian elections by pro-Russian forces. The 27 countries of the European Union were unable to agree on a joint communiqué: only 13 condemned the election result.
Worse, Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, rushed to Tbilisi to congratulate Moscow’s allies, at a time where Hungary holds the rotating presidency of the Union. The same Viktor Orban who is Donald Trump’s favorite interlocutor in Europe, which is promising if the Republican candidate wins.
End of an era?
There’s an element of despair in the eternal exception of a European leap forward in the face of rising perils, such as the Russian threat, the American uncertainty over support for Ukraine, or the risk of the continent’s unraveling highlighted by the Draghi report.
We’d like to believe with Donald Tusk that the era of “geopolitical outsourcing” is over; but the American vote, whatever the outcome, first and foremost highlight’s Europe’s weaknesses and divisions. As we await the hypothetical leap forward.
