-Analysis-
PARIS – Nobody can deny the immense significance and geopolitical implications of the fall of a dynastic regime that ruled for over half a century in a highly sensitive region of the world. With that said, the first order of business is to acknowledge the joy of Syrians, both within the country and among the millions who were forced to leave.
The images from Syria capture the fall of a tyrant: toppled statues, emptied prisons, palaces thrown open to the public. Given the nature of the ousted regime, this joy is justified, regardless of what comes next.
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Still, this is also very much a geopolitical earthquake, and its impact shouldn’t be underestimated. Bashar al-Assad’s regime was only saved in 2015 thanks to intervention by Russia, Iran, and its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah. By 2024, they were unable to mount another rescue, and the Syrian army collapsed without a fight.
Moscow faces the loss of an ally dating back to the Soviet era. Meanwhile, Iran has seen its embassy in Damascus ransacked, marking the end of decades of political investment.
It’s a significant setback for Vladimir Putin, coming as a delicate chapter begins with the future U.S. administration regarding the war in Ukraine — highlighted by Saturday’s meeting in Paris between president-elect Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Ukraine was quick to emphasize Russia’s “weakness” in its initial response to the events in Syria. Indeed, Putin appears less in control of the global agenda than he likes to project, from Eastern Europe to Africa and the Middle East.
Iran in a bind
Iran has seen decades of efforts to build the “Axis of Resistance” rather suddenly collapse, which spans from Yemen’s Houthis to the Palestinian Hamas, Lebanese Hezbollah, and of course, now Assad’s Syria.
Already weakened by Israel, Hezbollah will now lose its weapons supply route through Syria, which will significantly weaken its position in Lebanon for the long term.
As for the Tehran regime, like all authoritarian systems, it cannot watch the speed at which Syria turned without wondering in fear if the same could happen in Iran.
Ankara’s winning bet
On the other hand, Turkey can be placed on the side of the winners, as it has actively supported some of the factions that rose up against Assad. It immediately seized the opportunity to launch an armed group under its control towards areas still held by the Kurds in northeastern Syria. Ankara never loses sight of its hostility towards the Syrian Kurdish forces, due to their links with the PKK Kurdish party in Turkey.
There are the risks of factional rivalries
Syria faces immense challenges, including those posed by external powers, such as Israel, which took control of Syrian positions on Mount Hermon on Sunday to secure its border, and Turkey, which has its own agenda.
But Syria also faces the risks of factional rivalries. The Islamists of the HTC party, led by Mohamed al-Jolani, are dominant but not hegemonic, facing a multitude of actors. Or more simply, the replacement of one authoritarian regime with another, as has often been seen in history.
But nothing is written yet: one can only hope that Syria will turn its back on the “state of barbarism” that the French researcher Michel Seurat, who was assassinated in 1986 by Hezbollah in Lebanon, so aptly described. One does not emerge unscathed from half a century of brutal dictatorship.
