-Analysis-
PARIS – A terrorist one day, courted by world leader the next. Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the new strongman of Syria, has traded his nom de guerre for his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa — he is not the first to experience such transformations.
But in his case, it happened very quickly. Antony Blinken, the U.S. Secretary of State, who is currently on a tour of the Middle East, acknowledged on Saturday that a “direct contact” had been established between Washington and Syria’s new rulers. Such communications have so far not changed the fact that they are still labeled as a “terrorist group” by Washington, and that a $10 million reward is still attached to al-Jolani’s name.
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France, for its part, is sending a mission to Damascus on Tuesday, tasked with initiating the first contacts with the authorities, a prelude to the reopening of an embassy that has been closed for more than a decade. No one wants to miss the opportunity to reconnect with a country that has long remained isolated, in close alignment with its Russian and Iranian allies.
Swift change in Syria
The speed of this shift is impressive, given the jihadist past of the new leaders and the distrust it generates in foreign ministries.
Why so fast? First, the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, in just a few days, showed that it had become an empty shell once deprived of its sponsors’ support. The mass protests that took place on Friday, the first day of the great prayer since the regime’s fall, show that the rebels’ actions have broad popular support.
No one wants to see the country plunge into chaos.
The second reason is that no one, not even the Israelis who have repeatedly bombed Syria for the past week and destroyed 75% of its military equipment, has any interest in seeing this large country plunge into chaos. On the contrary, everyone has an interest in seeing it stabilize, if only to accommodate the refugees who wish to return home.
Global stakes
But above all, the precedent of Iraq shows that chaos primarily benefits the most extremist groups, namely the Islamic State (ISIS), which emerged from the country’s collapse following the 2003 U.S. invasion. The same destructive potential exists in Syria, where ISIS has not been completely eradicated.
There was initial caution in Western reactions, a hesitation to engage with leaders from jihadist backgrounds. But the key word now is “vigilance,” which does not prevent supporting the pragmatic first steps of the new leaders: their commitments to respect religious minorities, women’s rights, and their willingness to stabilize the country in the face of countless challenges.
One naturally also thinks of the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2021, and the initial debate over whether they had “changed”! We have since had the answer: No.
Will Syria take a different path with Islamists who have officially broken with jihadism? This is where the word “vigilance” truly matters — but the Syrians deserve our support and help after these years of horror during which we did little.
The country rushing into Syria without hesitation is Turkey: with Syrian factions at its service, it sees an opportunity to push the Kurds away from its border and expand its neo-Ottoman influence. This is yet another reason not to leave the Syrians alone, to face Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
