-Analysis-
PARIS — Just a few hours apart, two pieces of bad news emerged that further dim the prospects of a ceasefire in Gaza. The first came from Qatar, which decided to step back from its role as mediator, accusing both parties, Israel and Hamas, of not being interested in an agreement. Without Qatar, there is no longer a channel of discussion with Hamas, and thus, no hope for a ceasefire or negotiated release of Israeli hostages.
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Qatar is in a unique position. Over the years, it has financed Hamas to the tune of more than $1 billion. However, it did so with the approval of both Israel and the United States. The Israeli newspaper Haaretz recently recalled that in 2018, Qatar wanted to cut off funding to Hamas, but Israel requested that it continue.
This paradox is often overlooked by those emphasizing Qatar’s affinities with the Islamist ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood. But it is also what had allowed Qatar, for more than a year, to act as an intermediary and host in Doha both the head of the CIA and the head of the Israeli Mossad, despite its lack of diplomatic relations between the Jewish State. This facilitated the only ceasefire accompanied by the release of hostages last November.
Still, there has been no such breakthrough since.
Qatar has had enough
By making this bold move now, Qatar refuses to take the blame for the persistent failure of negotiations. It is likely that stepping back from its role will only be temporary, a chance to point to the true culprits: the two parties in the conflict — Palestinian Hamas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Qatar says it will return only if both parties show genuine intent to negotiate. Initial reports suggested Qatar was requesting the closure of Hamas’s office in Doha, but nothing has been confirmed that would signal a more significant break.
The timing of this announcement in the wake of Donald Trump’s election is likely no coincidence, even though Qatari leaders had hinted at their intentions before the vote. In just a few days, everything has shifted, even though Trump will not be inaugurated until January 20.
Israel’s new envoy in Washington
The center of power has already moved to Mar-a-Lago, the Florida estate where the president-elect is based. Netanyahu has already spoken with Trump three times since his victory and is sending an envoy to discuss Iran.
The future ambassador embodies a policy of continued settlement expansion
The second development is the announcement of Israel’s new ambassador to the United States: Yechiel Leiter, a close ally of Netanyahu with a far-right settler background, once associated with the Kahanist movement, which is banned in the U.S. The future ambassador has lived in the Hebron settlement, a hub of violent extremist settlers.
This choice to represent Israel in Washington during the upcoming Trump administration sends a clear and uncompromising message. The future ambassador embodies a policy of continued settlement expansion, including the annexation of the West Bank, and the outright rejection of a “two-state solution.”
Netanyahu hopes the Trump administration will back this uncompromising policy.
These developments bode poorly for any short-term easing of tensions. Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes continue to claim numerous lives in Gaza as the new Netanyahu–Trump united “front of refusal” takes shape.
