-Analysis-
PARIS – It was easy to decode the congratulatory messages sent to Donald Trump following his victory in the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election. There were the enthusiasts, including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; the concerned, led by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky; and those who played “business as usual,” like French President Emmanuel Macron, who even had an initial phone call with the president-elect — as if life were continuing normally.
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But life will not be normal, everyone knows that. Trump’s victory is not just a democratic shift: It marks a turning point during a time of global power realignment. The personality and political positions of the next leader of the world’s foremost power will impact every continent, affecting peace, war, the economy and the climate.
To imagine the foreign policy of a second Trump term, there is no program or manual: There is the experience of his first term, from 2016 to 2020, and what is known about his views and supporters.
An ambiguous foreign policy
First, we must abandon traditional frameworks for analyzing Trump’s international vision. He is not isolationist, as America has been at times in its history. But he is not internationalist either — the opposite of isolationism — as the Republican Party once was.
Trump will be relentless on the economic diplomacy front, wielding the word “tariffs” like a totem against the Europeans, the Chinese and anyone he believes is taking advantage of America.
Nothing is sacred for Trump.
Then, there is the question of alliances with NATO, treaties with South Korea, Japan and, to some extent, Taiwan. Nothing is sacred for Trump, as we saw during his first term.
To this day, no one truly knows his intentions on this key issue, beyond a few ambiguous statements. The first clue will come from the team he chooses.
If, as suggested by the Financial Times, Richard Grenell is appointed Secretary of State, we would know what to expect. Grenell, a Trump ally, served as ambassador to Germany during the first term and his meddling in domestic politics earned him the title of “right-wing extremist colonial officer” from Martin Schulz, former European Parliament president.
Musk, but no adults
There is also the special role of Elon Musk, the head of X/Twitter, Tesla and SpaceX, who has emerged in Trump’s inner circle and represents the growing influence of technology in geopolitical relations. What role will Musk play? Will he be a behind the scenes influence or hold an official role?
He will undoubtedly have an impact on the Trump administration’s international actions — just as he does now with his business empire — despite the contradictions in his own interests, investments in China and libertarian vision.
Trump seeks to free himself
The one certainty: There will be no “adults in the room” this time, like the generals and establishment figures responsible for tempering Trump’s impulses during his first term. For his return, Trump seeks to free himself from what he calls the “deep state” and will rely on Project 2025, prepared by the far-right Heritage Foundation, which has compiled a list of top officials to replace.
Thus, it will be an unrestrained Trump on the international stage, with one directive: “Make America great again” — too bad for the rest of the world.
