-Analysis-
PARIS – After months of hesitation, Joe Biden made a major decision at the least expected moment: he has authorized Ukrainians to use U.S. long-range missiles to strike Russian territory.
For months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had urgently requested this permission, but Biden had hesitated to escalate against the Russian army, especially during the election campaign. But he was finally prompted by the involvement of North Korean soldiers on the Russian side, which marked a major escalation that called for a response from Ukraine’s allies.
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With Donald Trump’s victory, Biden is now free from domestic political pressures and has made a decision that, while unlikely to change the balance of power, will relieve some of the pressure on Ukraine. But it ultimately will not change the major downside that in two months he will no longer be in the White House. By all indications, Trump appears far less determined to support Ukraine — and he may wind up reversing Biden’s breakthrough decision.
Kursk theater
The use of U.S., British, and French long-range missiles, following Washington’s approval, will provide Ukraine with greater military flexibility. They are under attack in the Kursk region, Russian territory, which they are trying to hold onto as leverage for future negotiations. This support could also help bolster Ukraine’s defensive position in the face of ongoing assaults, including Russian air strikes in eastern Ukraine.
The American decision was welcomed in Kyiv, although Ukrainian leaders wish it had come sooner. In Moscow, the decision was strongly condemned, especially as it comes at a critical point as its invasion is approaching the three-year mark.
Trump promised to resolve the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours.”
The 48 hours leading up to the unofficial announcement in Washington were significant. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had his first call with Russian President Vladimir Putin in two years. Additionally, Russia carried out one of its largest bombings of Ukrainian cities, killing 11 people and targeting the already damaged electrical system.
Limits of telephone diplomacy
Listen to the reaction of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a great supporter of Ukraine: “No one will stop Putin with phone calls. Last night’s attack shows that telephone diplomacy cannot replace the whole West’s support for Ukraine.” The American decision on the long-range missiles is in sync with Tusk.
The link between these events is Donald Trump and his team, including Marco Rubio (Secretary of State nominee), Mike Waltz (National Security Advisor nominee), and Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence nominee). Rubio and Waltz initially supported aid to Ukraine, but later voted against it. Gabbard has shown more pronounced pro-Russian sympathies.
Before entering the White House, Trump promised to resolve the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours.” Putin seized the opportunity to intensify his attacks at a moment that seemed favorable for him.
Joe Biden’s late support for Ukraine complicates the efforts of those hoping for the country’s surrender. While it may not change the course of history, it challenges those betting on Ukraine’s capitulation.
