-Analysis-
PARIS — We can only feel relief at the implementation of a ceasefire Wednesday morning on one of the fronts that’s been ignited in the Middle East over the past year. For both the Lebanese and the residents of northern Israel, even if it is not peace, the halting of war is already a significant step.
Until the very end, Israeli airstrikes targeted sites in Lebanon, including heavy bombardments in central Beirut on Tuesday, causing more panic in the country. At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened his government and secured the agreement from his far-right allies, who, as always, remained resolutely supportive of the military approach.
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The objection from the hardliners in the Israeli government, including centrist Benny Gantz, is that Hezbollah has not been fully eliminated, despite being weakened, particularly after the death of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. While Hezbollah will retreat north of the Litani River and no longer be on the border with Israel, it has not disappeared and could become a future threat, undermining one of Israel’s key war objectives.
Netanyahu’s reasons
The Israeli prime minister had several reasons for accepting the 13-point plan presented by the United States. France, the co-negotiator, is not very popular with Netanyahu, especially since it seemed to endorse the international arrest warrant against him.
There are the reasons he gave during his announcement Tuesday night: to focus on Iran, allow the exhausted military to rest, and ensure that Israel retains the right to resume hostilities if Hezbollah violates the agreement. Netanyahu emphasized this point.
Israeli leaders have indicated they will remain in Gaza for “years” to come.
But there are also two other reasons: the first is to satisfy the U.S. negotiators, with Donald Trump’s agreement. This allows him to avoid tension with the waning administration of Joe Biden and wait for better days with his successor, a friend of Israel and especially its prime minister.
The second reason can be summed up in one word: Gaza.
Hezbollah had linked the two “fronts,” Lebanon and Gaza; the Shiite movement is now retreating on this point, which is a success for Netanyahu. And above all, this is not the end of the war in the Gaza Strip, despite approximately 44,000 deaths according to Hamas, and the almost total destruction of the territory.
Keeping options open
Netanyahu is keeping his options open in Gaza, where, disregarding external pressure, he is carrying out what appears to be ethnic cleansing in the northern part of the territory. Israel has not disclosed its post-conflict intentions, but leaders have indicated they will remain in Gaza for “years” to come.
Some politicians openly seek to expel Palestinians. By pausing operations in Lebanon, Netanyahu is undoubtedly buying more time for his campaign in Gaza.
For now, the agreement on Lebanon must work, but it’s far from simple. Over the next 60 days, a delicate operation is underway: the Israeli army must leave Lebanon, Hezbollah will move north of the Litani River, and the Lebanese army will deploy in the south, alongside UN peacekeepers.
Sixty days from now, the climate in the region will largely depend on Donald Trump’s stance, particularly regarding Iran. The ceasefire in Lebanon is just a first positive step in a much more complex and volatile situation.
