-Analysis-
PARIS — Kyiv has crossed a new line.
General Igor Kirillov, head of the Russian army’s chemical and biological weapons division, was assassinated at dawn on Tuesday, in the center of the capital, Moscow. Ukraine quickly claimed responsibility, citing the use of banned chemical weapons ordered by this senior officer, in the boldest act of vengeance carried out by the SBU, the Ukrainian secret services. .
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Kirillov was leaving his building at 6 a.m., accompanied by a colleague, when both men were killed instantly by the explosion of a rigged scooter. It remains unclear how the explosion was triggered remotely.
What is certain is the signature of the SBU. The Ukrainian services have confirmed responsibility for the targeted assassination. The day before, they had published a photo of Kirillov, accusing him of being responsible for the use of banned chemical agents on the battlefield, which sent some 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers to the hospital with ailments.
Chemical weapons and motive
The use of chemical weapons has been prohibited by international treaties since the devastation of World War I. The recently deposed Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad had been notorious for using the banned weapons against its own civilian populations with impunity.
Ukraine is determined to bring the war to the heart of Russian society.
Why did Ukraine choose assassination? For two reasons: first, because the Syrian example shows that it is impossible to hold a country accountable for violating international law when it is protected by the veto of a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.
Secondly, because Ukraine is determined to bring the war to the heart of Russian society, so that it too feels its effects while Ukrainian cities are bombed daily by Russian missiles and drones. Ukraine has increased drone attacks on Russian infrastructure, sometimes far from its own territory; it has pushed the Americans to allow the use of their medium-range missiles to strike military targets in Russia; and, finally, it has carried out several targeted assassinations over the past two years.
Escalation and retaliation
The first targets were agents of Russian propaganda. Darya Dugina, the daughter of ultranationalist ideologue Alexander Dugin, was killed in a car bomb attack in 2022. Military experts have also been targeted by such assassinations. But never before has such a high-ranking figure been struck in nearly three years of total war.
The damage is done.
Russia has already promised swift retaliation. But the damage is done — Ukrainian intelligence services have demonstrated their ability to strike such a significant senior officer in the heart of the capital.
Fear itself is a weapon, of both vengeance and pressure. But it is also clear that each side is raising the stakes ahead of Donald Trump’s arrival at the White House, and his intention to push for negotiations. Struggling on the Eastern fronts, Ukraine is demonstrating that it is not in a mindset of capitulation.
For Western countries, a targeted assassination in Moscow is harder to publicly endorse; even though they share the Ukrainians’ view of General Kirillov, who had accused the West of preparing chemical weapons while he was the one ordering their use.
Kyiv’s allies thus do not endorse the act, but neither do they disavow Ukraine’s right to fight back — because it is Ukraine that has its back against the wall, especially with continued support from the West getting harder and harder to come by.
