-Analysis-
PARIS — The presence of North Korean soldiers alongside the Russian army against Ukraine, revealed by South Korea and now confirmed by the United States, has sounded the alarm. It is one thing to deliver ammunition and drones to Russia, as North Korea and Iran have been doing for months now; it is quite another to send roughly 12,000 troops to the front, according to Seoul.
In fact, this is the very nuance that the West is using to deny, in the face of the Kremlin’s accusations, that it is “cobelligerent” because it is training and arming the Ukrainians. And this is the debate that French President Emmanuel Macron sparked off in February, when he raised the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine, only to clarify that they were only trainers.
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You will recall that in December 2021, just before the Russian invasion, U.S. President Joe Biden was asked about the possibility of sending American soldiers to defend Ukraine: “You don’t think about it,” he said, “an American soldier facing a Russian, that’s World War III.”
That was nearly three years ago. Since then, step by step, war — the wars — have taken hold in our world. The question is whether they are becoming international, global.
Areas of Conflict
The two main areas of conflict in the world — alas, not the only ones — are in Russia-Ukraine and in the Middle East. These are local issues: Russian ambitions in Ukraine, the old Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran’s strategy of influence.
But these local or regional issues are taking on an increasingly international dimension. This is obvious with Ukraine, due to the identity of the aggressor, Russia: a nuclear power, a permanent member of the Security Council and a superpower on the comeback trail.
Nothing that Russia does is really local, but its turning to North Korea changes the situation.
South Korea, still living under the threat of its northern neighbor 70 years after the end of the Korean War, has made no mistake, saying it is ready to help Ukraine. These Asian nations are thus participating in the internationalization of the war.
What to expect
Can we expect other signs? They are already there.
Does cooperation between Russia, China, North Korea and Iran have the makings of a military alliance?
Last week, as Israel prepared to retaliate against the Iranian attack, an American Thaad anti-aircraft battery was installed in Israel, with about 100 soldiers to serve it. These are the first since Oct. 7, even though the United States has been involved in Israel’s defense from the outside.
The question is whether the cooperation between Russia, China, North Korea and Iran has the makings of a military alliance. The bridges do exist, including military ones. But that does not make for a coherent axis.
Last month, Chinese political scientist Zheng Yongnian published a text wondering whether World War III had not become inevitable with the disintegration of the order created in 1945.
This would have been of no importance had it not been for the fact that Chinese President Xi Jinping had read this text, which was a way of saying that it should be taken seriously. These are words, of course, but North Korea’s decision gives this little warlike tune a little more weight.
