Updated Dec. 20, 2024 at 5:00 p.m.*
-Analysis-
PARIS – Two locations, two very different scenes. In Syria, a humiliating retreat for the Russian army: a convoy of about 100 vehicles left Damascus on Monday to evacuate some 500 Russian soldiers who had been trapped since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
To evacuate these men and their equipment to a Russian base on the Syrian coast, Moscow had to negotiate with Syria’s new leaders — men whom Russian airstrikes had previously bombed relentlessly.
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At the same time in Moscow, Vladimir Putin remained silent about the crushing defeat he suffered in Syria with the overthrow of his main Middle Eastern ally. Instead, he directed his threats toward the West. Speaking recently at a conference before military officials, the Russian president accused Western powers of pushing Russia toward a “red line from which it cannot retreat.”
Speaking at a marathon end-of-year press conference, Putin appeared to concede shortcomings, just a few days after the brazen killing early Tuesday of Russian General Igor Kirillov, a key figure in Russia’s chemical and nuclear defense forces, assassinated in the Russian capital. “We must not allow such very serious blunders to happen,” Putin said in his address.
Putin’s missile threat
One of the sources of the president’s anger is the planned 2026 deployment of U.S. intermediate-range missiles in Europe, which Putin claims threaten Russian territory. He stated that he is ready to escalate in response by firing Oreshnik hypersonic missiles, a model of which was tested last month against Ukraine.
One cannot help but be struck by the timing.
There are, of course, ongoing military disputes between Russia and the West, stemming from the collapse in recent years of nearly all arms control treaties established during the Cold War.
But one cannot help but be struck by the timing: the loss of Syria is one of Russia’s most significant strategic setbacks in a long time. Decades of presence in the country, dating back to the Soviet era, are now threatened with disappearing, along with Russia’s hopes of regaining its status as a global power.
Setbacks in Syria
While Moscow has negotiated the orderly return of its scattered troops in Syria to its two bases on the coast, the fate of these bases has yet to be decided, according to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.
These Syrian infrastructures hold strategic value for Russia: They are its only foothold in the Mediterranean and serve as a rear base for Russian operations in Africa, led by the former Wagner group, now renamed Afrika Korps.
There will always be Westerners wondering whether he’s bluffing or serious.
A few weeks ago, everything was going well for the Russian leader. He was making progress on the Ukrainian front, Donald Trump was elected with the promise to stop aiding Kyiv, Georgia remained within Russia’s sphere, Europeans were divided, and Americans were tangled in Middle Eastern conflicts.
Doing what Putin does best
The loss of Syria weakens Putin just ahead of major events for him, with Donald Trump’s inauguration at the White House in five weeks and ongoing diplomatic maneuvers surrounding Ukraine.
To regain control, Putin threatens, which is what he does best. And he knows there will always be Westerners wondering whether he’s bluffing or serious. It’s his way of compensating for his weaknesses.
As always in international crises, the flaw for him came from where it was least expected: from Syria, which seemed frozen in its ruins after a decade of internal war won by the regime and its Russian and Iranian backers. What Syria has reminded the world is that Vladimir Putin is not invincible.
*Originally published Dec. 17, 2024, this article was updated Dec. 20, 2024 with mentions of Vladimir Putin’s end-of-year address, as well as enriched media.
