-Analysis-
PARIS — The sound of weapons has not completely ceased in Lebanon. On Thursday, Israel bombed a Hezbollah position in southern Lebanon, marking the first breach of the ceasefire declared on Wednesday morning. Yet attention is already shifting to two other countries now in the eye of the storm: Syria and Iran.
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In his televised address on Tuesday evening, announcing the conclusion of the agreement on Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made his intentions clear: for Israel, it is about focusing on Iran — and countering Iranian influence involves dealing with Bashar Assad’s Syria.
The challenge for Israel is to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding its military arsenal in Lebanon, partially destroyed during the recent weeks of intense bombings. Yet the transfer routes for weapons or missile components, which are later assembled in Hezbollah’s clandestine workshops, pass through Syria.
Targets in Syria
Hours before the ceasefire took effect in Lebanon, Israeli airstrikes destroyed three crossing points between Syria and Lebanon, sending a clear message that Israel will not hesitate to do so as often as necessary.
One must take Netanyahu at his word when he said on Tuesday night: “Assad is playing with fire.” Syrian sovereignty holds little weight, as the country remains severely weakened after the devastation of the civil war. This week, jihadist groups, backed by Turkey, reached the gates of Aleppo, a sign that the embers of war are far from extinguished.
This is clearly the “big piece” of the Middle Eastern equation.
What’s more, Netanyahu has been in contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a rare exchange since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, aimed at preventing the Syrian port of Latakia, a Russian naval base, from being used to benefit Hezbollah.
This is clearly the “big piece” of the Middle Eastern equation, especially on the eve of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, as he advocates for “maximum pressure” on Tehran.
Trump’s return
On Tuesday, Netanyahu reaffirmed his determination to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The two direct confrontations between Iran and Israel this year have only marginally impacted Iran’s nuclear facilities, with the Biden administration opposing such actions.
A large part of the current uncertainties lie in Netanyahu’s intentions regarding Iran and the potential “cover” that the future U.S. president could provide. Is Trump ready to give the green light to Israeli strikes against Iran’s nuclear program, at the risk of an escalation? And what do the Saudis, U.S. allies who recently held a meeting with Iran, think about this?
Tehran, having lost some of its regional influence due to the setbacks faced by Hezbollah and Hamas, wants to appear conciliatory, likely because the balance of power is not in its favor. It may also want to preserve the possibility of becoming a nuclear power, like North Korea, a threat that Netanyahu considers “existential” for Israel.
So the agreement in Lebanon does not mark the beginning of the end of the Middle Eastern confrontation; it may just open the next phase.
