-Analysis-
PARIS — Donald Trump has made no substantive statements since his electoral victory on Tuesday. Yet the effects of his win are already being felt in the two main global conflict zones: Ukraine and the Middle East.
[shortcode-Eye-On-Us-Box]
The impact is diametrically opposed depending on whether you are Volodymyr Zelensky, president of a Ukraine struggling militarily against Russia and about to lose its primary support, America, or Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister of Israel, a country at war for over a year, now benefiting from the full protection of President-elect Trump.
Netanyahu is in the most enviable position in the new political configuration. He knows he has a free hand until Jan. 20, until the inauguration of the 47th president of the United States, to continue his total war as he sees fit.
Netanyahu on the offensive
The 46th president, Joe Biden, is now a lame duck, meaning his words are significantly devalued during his final months in office. Netanyahu will make good use of this.
He already hasn’t yielded much to Biden’s requests for strategy changes over the past year, except for some strikes in Iran, where targets were negotiated with Washington. Now he no longer has to worry about what the White House thinks until the new tenant arrives.
Trump will let Netanyahu have his way until he enters the White House.
This will allow him to carry out the ethnic cleansing, unacknowledged, in northern Gaza without explicitly revealing his objectives. To eliminate any risk, he even dismissed his Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant.
On Thursday, Gallant stated that Israel had achieved its goals in Gaza and that it was time for an agreement to save the remaining hostages. He accused Netanyahu of making decisions alone based on criteria that are neither military nor political.
Trump will let Netanyahu have his way until he enters the White House. He will then want to appear as the peacemaker. In Gaza, Lebanon, and possibly Iran, the next two months will likely be terrible.
Zelensky on the defensive
The situation is different in Ukraine. Trump has already announced his goal: to resolve the conflict “within 24 hours,” though no one knows how. It seems hard to imagine this being to Ukraine’s advantage given the current context.
Kyiv’s European allies met last night in Budapest, on the sidelines of a pan-European summit. A huge paradox, as they were hosted by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has become the main European interlocutor for Trump — while still being the only one continuing dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Europeans won’t want to start the new term in a power struggle with a resentful president.
Already, the choreography of this shift began yesterday. Putin congratulated Trump and expressed readiness to discuss his ideas for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Zelensky, attending the Budapest summit, warned those tempted to push him to negotiate that it would be “suicide for Europe.”
How will the Europeans prevent the Trump-Orban duo from forcing Ukraine to surrender on terms more favorable to Putin than to the Ukrainians? This is especially tricky because the Europeans won’t want to start the new term in a power struggle with a resentful president, who is already threatening them with a trade war.
Only 48 hours after Trump’s victory announcement, the world has become a bit more uncertain.
