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Iran

Geopolitics

Why The Latin American Far Left Can't Stop Cozying Up To Iran's Regime

Among the Islamic Republic of Iran's very few diplomatic friends are too many from Latin America's left, who are always happy to milk their cash-rich allies for all they are worth.

-OpEd-

The Latin American Left has an incurable anti-Yankee fever. It is a sickness seen in the baffling support given by the socialist regimes of Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela or Bolivia to the Islamic Republic of Iran, which to many exemplifies clerical fascism. And all for a single, crass reason: together they hate the United States.

The Islamic Republic has so many of the traits the Left used to hate and fight in the 20th century: a religious (Islamic) vocation, medieval obscurantism, misogyny... Its kleptocratic economy has turned bog-standard class divisions into chasmic inequalities reminiscent of colonial times.

This support is, of course, cynical and in line with the mandates of realpolitik. The regional master in this regard is communist Cuba, which has peddled its anti-imperialist discourse for 60 years, even as it awaits another chance at détente with its ever wealthy neighbor.

I reflected on this on the back of recent remarks by Bolivia's ambassador in Tehran, the 64-year-old Romina Pérez Ramos. She must be the busiest diplomat in Tehran right now, and not a day goes by without her going, appearing or speaking somewhere, with all the publicity she can expect from the regime's media.

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Water War Or Religious Strife? Trouble At The Iran-Afghanistan Border

Iran and Afghanistan have long had a tense relationship. Recent skirmishes at their shared border indicate that conflict is escalating, but the causes are unclear.

-Analysis-

PARIS — For now, there have been only a few skirmishes, which have resulted in several deaths. But a larger conflict is brewing between Afghanistan and Iran, two neighbors that have already had a difficult relationship. Each one accuses the other, and the two have been sending military reinforcements to the border, which is more than 900 kilometers long.

The risk of further escalation has only been growing.

Like every conflict, it has its immediate causes, as well as a broader context. The immediate issue is water. Tehran is accusing Kabul of violating an accord which dates back to 1973, which governs the flow of the Helmand River, a vital source of water for both countries. For Iran, Afghanistan’s construction of new hydroelectric and irrigation dams has affected the 1,000 km river’s downstream flow, which has only exacerbated the impact of existing droughts.

Afghanistan denies these accusations, and blames climate change, rather than dams, for the droughts Iran has been experiencing. Here lies a problem that a growing part of the world is experiencing: the transformation of water into a strategic resource worth fighting for.

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Iran And Russia, An Alliance Of Common Enemies — Sealed By Sanctions

Russia attacks Ukraine with Iranian shahed drones, thinks about buying Iranian missiles, sells Iran Su-35 fighters, and starts repairing its civilian aircraft. How is it that Iran has become Russia's main ally?

-Analysis-

The rapprochement between Iran and Russia began even before the war with Ukraine, as there was a significant reshuffle of power within Iran. People from highly conservative circles came in, in alliance with the security forces, from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

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They had no doubts that sanctions on Iran would not be completely lifted even if a nuclear deal was signed.

In an interview with the Russian edition of independent media outlet Important Stories, Nikolai Kozhanov, associate professor at the Center for Persian Gulf Studies at Qatar University, explained how strong the Iran-Russia alliance is, and why it is evident that a global confrontational process was underway, even before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

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Iran, The Day After: Here's What Could Happen If The Ayatollahs Fall

Finding themselves amid a range of strategic, economic and regional interests, Iranians in a post-regime future will have to deftly maneuver their country toward a peaceful, constitutional state. Bahram Farrokhi writes about the good, the bad and the worst-case scenarios.

-Analysis-

Three months of mass protests against Iran's clerical regime last year, while brutally put down, raised hopes among millions of Iranians for an end to the Islamic Republic's stifling 40-year rule. They also raised fears of chaos and speculations about what might follow — the good, the bad and the worst-case scenarios — if the iron-fisted regime were to end.

Let's consider what some of these scenarios may look like.

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Geopolitics
Ryad Hamadi

The Syrian Rapprochement With The Arab World Is Far From Complete

Despite the official "consensus" by Arab League nations to welcome Syria back to the organization after 12 years of suspension, several key countries were opposed on principal — including key questions still open in North Africa.

ALGIERS — Algerian diplomacy may appear strengthened by the Arab League's recent decision to reintegrate Syria. Yet neighboring Morocco conversely finds itself in an uncomfortable position.

After mirroring Saudi Arabia's position on nearly all regional issues, Morocco was caught off guard when the country decided to support Syria's reintegration.

On May 7 in Cairo, foreign ministers of Arab League nations agreed to welcome Syria back to the organization after 12 years of suspension.

This reinstatement will be subject to certain conditions imposed on Syria, including the return of refugees, facilitating the passage of international humanitarian aid across borders and working on preparations to hold elections.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is expected to attend the Arab summit scheduled in Saudi Arabia on May 19.

The decision was made by consensus, meaning it was accepted by all member countries, including those, like Morocco, who vehemently opposed this option just a few weeks ago.

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Geopolitics
Kayhan-London

Iranian Regime Facing "Unprecedented" Street Attacks Against Clerics

A spate of recent attacks in Iran on clerics, seminarians and even state agents are prompting some to self-defense classes, while others are holing up inside.

Iran's mullahs, or the Shia jurists usually seen in flowing robes and turban, may be in charge of Iran, but they're increasingly hesitant to tread its streets.

Their fears follow a recent spate of attacks on regime supporters including a gun killing, possibly related to public anger with the Islamic regime and its violent suppression of mass protests late in 2022.

On May 1, the judiciary chief Gholam Hussein Mohseni-Ejei urged a swift and firm response, while another cleric, former intelligence minister Ali Fallahian, advised those mullahs preaching at Friday congregational prayers to take self-defense classes.

The incidents include the shooting death on April 26 of a senior cleric, Abbas Ali Suleimani, in a bank in the northern city of Babolsar, one of several attempts to run over clerics or seminarians, a Basiji militiaman killed in Sabzevar in north-eastern Iran and a police commander shot dead in Saravan in the province of Sistan-Baluchestan, on April 30. On May 6, another mullah was reported as stabbed and injured in the district of Ahmadabad in the central Markazi province.

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Society
Worldcrunch

Iran's New Plan To Boost Population: Students Who Get Pregnant Get Higher Grades

The Iranian regime has been trying different methods to encourage people to have children. Most have failed, for economic reasons.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei believes that population growth makes for a nation's strength, and he wants Iran's to be replenished and increased.

That has reshaped state policies for some years now in favor of marriage and procreation and against contraception, abortion and Western-style single living. The higher education ministry now wants to do its part, and has informed universities that teaching staff can expect promotional credits "for every pregnant student" or mother-and-toddler student in their class.

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Society
Golnaz Fakhari

Iran's Violence Against Women Runs Deep — And Can No Longer Be Swept Away

Iran must one day write the history of the violence perpetrated on its women, especially under the 40-year Islamic Republic, if historiography is to serve its progress toward a peaceful, democratic society.

-Analysis-

Sexual violence, specifically rape, has been used as a tool to terrorize civilians in most, if not all, conflicts of the modern age.

Evidence gathered on rape during conflicts since the Second World War shows that the vast majority of victims are women — even if men are also raped — and that the practice is systematic, rather than a byproduct of chaos.

Examples abound, but among the most gruesome are testimonies cited in a 2002 article in The Guardian, on the rape of "every German female" of all ages by Red Army soldiers pushing into Germany at the end of the World War II.

As a woman, now may be the time to reread history and to finally understand how societies deal with large-scale sexual violence. It is a shameful history for any country, for many reasons, but processing it the right way — which means facing the facts where possible — may be crucial to building a peaceful society.

I have been researching Iran's history in the last years of the monarchy, before the 1979 revolution, and the first years of the Islamic regime that followed. I was looking for material on the women of Shahr-e no (New City, Tehran's "red-light district"), and wondered why there is so little compared with other episodes of our recent history. The same may be said of women killed or raped during the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88.

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Ideas
F. Haqiqatjou

Iranians And The Headscarf — It's Complicated

Media coverage of Iran's mass protests of 2022 failed to truly show how most Iranians thought about the hijab or a general dress code for women. Centering the whole fight for justice in Iran around the headscarf has its risks.

-Analysis-

Accounts of the Iranian clerical regime's confrontation with its opponents, which began with their very inception in 1979 and reached a new peak in the mass demonstrations of 2022, have tended to overlook what the Iranian population actually wants.

When Iran's authorities set policies like its hijab or Islamic garment rules, for which Mahsa Amini was beaten to death last September, the people's preferences or views are not part of the process.

The rational solution ultimately may well be a referendum on the obligatory nature of the hijab, which is the way democratic countries tackle divisive issues. Article 59 of the Islamic Republic's constitution allows for a referendum on matters of vital importance or public significance, and the hijab has certainly become one. A referendum is a peaceful solution — violence is costly for both society and state legitimacy — and might even extricate the Islamic Republic from its political and legitimacy impasse.

Naturally, the powers-that-be in Iran will oppose it, fearing its outcome. In a free and entirely regular vote, it is fair to suppose that a majority would reject obligatory hijab or dress rules. Day-to-day observations and field research keep showing that Iranians are opposed to the state telling women how to dress.

Still, this doesn't mean that people have a problem with the hijab itself.

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Economy
Les Echos

A Cold French Shower On All The De-Dollarization Hysteria

Sure, financial instability in the U.S. and the weaponization of the dollar have raised crucial questions about how long the dollar can remain the world's de-facto currency. But France's leading business daily says don't expect major changes any time soon.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Americans are a strange bunch. Fifteen years after allowing the eruption of the largest global financial crisis in nearly a century, they were not even able to prevent a bank with more than $200 billion in assets from collapsing in a few hours.

These people are as careless with their public accounts as they are with their private finances. This year, the U.S. public deficit is expected to approach 6% of GDP, almost double that of the European Union. As if this impasse were only a minor problem.

Can we continue to trust a country's currency so inconsistent with money?

More and more countries are answering this question by buying gold. After beginning their return to the yellow metal in 2009, just after the great financial crisis, central banks acquired 1,136 tons last year. A record for over half a century!

And if they have increased their purchases, especially in emerging countries, it is not only to protect their reserves from inflation or banking crises. It may also be with monetary plans in mind.

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Geopolitics
Kayhan-London

How Iran's Supreme Leader Is Short-Circuiting Diplomacy To Forge Alliances In Arab World

Iran's Supreme leader Ali Khamenei recently sent out a special envoy to ease tensions with wealthy Arab neighbors. He's hoping to end the country's international isolation and dismal economic conditions that contributed to last year's mass protests.

-Analysis-

Needing to revive its diplomatic options and financial ties with the Middle East, Iran's embattled regime recently sent a senior security official and former defense minister — instead of members of the diplomatic corps — to talk business with regional powers that have been keeping Iran at arm's length.

After a surprise deal in mid-March to restore diplomatic ties with the Saudi monarchy, Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, traveled to the United Arab Emirates, meeting with officials including the federation's head, Sheikh Muhammad bin Zaid Al Nahyan. His meetings are expected to ease the flow of regional money into Iran's economy, which is practically on pause after years of international sanctions. After Abu Dhabi, Shamkhani went to Baghdad.

Shamkhani was effectively acting as an envoy of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and supplanting the country's diplomatic apparatus. This wasn't the first time an Iranian foreign minister has been sidelined in crucial international affairs.

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Geopolitics
Kayhan London

The True Limits Of The Saudi-Iranian Deal Begin In Tehran

Iran and Saudi Arabia have announced they will restore diplomatic relations. The news may have proved startling — especially China's role — but is unlikely to dispel long-standing distrust between two regional rivals.

-Analysis-

Observers have reacted to the planned restoration of diplomatic ties between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Saudi monarchy, with Chinese mediation, as a warning to the United States on its declining position in the Middle East — and China's arrival as a regional powerbroker.

The announcement even provoked accusations between government and opposition in Israel, which was likely hoping to normalize ties with Saudi Arabia in the framework of the Abraham Accords.

The U.S. website Axios recently cited an unnamed Israel official as blaming U.S. weakness under the current Democratic administration for this development in Middle East. While the United States remains Israel's chief ally, there is an inevitable clash of perspectives between the right-wing government in Tel Aviv and Washington.

Yet on Iran's regional threat, both sides insist they're on the same page.

Opponents of Israel's current Benjamin Netanyahu government have even blamed its divisive judicial reforms for distracting the country from regional affairs at a sensitive time. But the Israeli official cited in Axios observed that developments behind the scenes, including U.S.-Israeli collaborations, were more important than surface events.

In Iran, the breakthrough was presented by some as a victory against the West's bid to isolate the regime, which has deftly worked itself into a corner with its contested nuclear activities, alignment with Russia in Ukraine, and harsh repression of protesters in recent months. The conservative Kayhan newspaper, unrelated to Kayhan-London, called the deal a "working blow against America" and Israel.

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