-Analysis-
For nearly two weeks, Israel had launched unprecedented attacks aimed at the very heart of the Iranian regime’s military, intelligence and security institutions. But just as the strikes were shaking Tehran’s power structures, it suddenly screeched to a halt. The end of the military confrontation did not come from a decision by the Iranian people, or because the regime retreated, but simply because U.S. President Donald Trump decided to call for an immediate ceasefire — from both sides!
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From the moment Trump threatened to attack Iran’s Fordow nuclear facilities, it was clear his goal was not to destroy the regime, but to give the American people a public demonstration of power.
The attacks Israel carried out over 12 days, with precision and logistical and intelligence support from the United States, targeted nuclear facilities, command centers of the Revolutionary Guards, the FARAJA (police units) and Intelligence Ministry with speed and intensity. During those days, vital power centers in Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan, Shiraz, Kermanshah, Khorramabad and many other areas shook, and sometimes collapsed.
Official and unofficial reports indicate that hundreds of key figures in the Islamic Republic have been killed or have disappeared, from senior commanders and intelligence chiefs to security officials running prisons or military bases, and top nuclear scientists. Several government and army headquarters were destroyed, and command and communication networks disrupted, creating a level of fear among officials that was higher than at any time since the 1979 revolution.
Imminent freedom?
After years of repression, the Iranian people saw for the first time real signs of the regime falling apart before their eyes. Something more than hope was taking shape on the streets and online: it looked like freedom was imminent.
But just when it seemed the game was nearing its end, Trump wrote in hasty tones on his Truth Social network: “There will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE… at which point the War will be considered ENDED!”
With a gesture, the course of history slowed back down, and a golden opportunity was lost to bring the dictatorship to an end.
This sudden order forced Israel to halt an operation that had not yet reached its final wave. With a gesture, the course of history slowed back down, and a golden opportunity was lost to bring the dictatorship to an end — with the final blow naturally coming from the Iranians.
Then, Trump’s next post on Tuesday made the story even more surprising: “China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran! Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the U.S., also. It was my Great Honor to make this happen!”
These were simple words, but they stung.
Backdoor deal?
Some began to suspect that there was a backdoor deal at work, with benefits for governments and companies — and losses for a people preparing to strike the final blow once the regime was truly weakened.
Meanwhile, worrying reports are also being heard from the nuclear field. According to some sources, the Islamic Republic disposes of more than 400 kilograms of 60-percent enriched uranium, which is but a technical step away from their 90% enrichment and use in building an atomic bomb.
One cannot forget that the Islamic Republic is an ideological regime: a government that never recognized Israel’s existence and has made its destruction an official slogan.
There have also been reports of this uranium and advanced centrifuges being taken to unknown locations. While their destination is unknown, the goal is probably to maintain deterrence, or something more: to create nuclear weapons, especially for a final confrontation with Israel.
One cannot forget that the Islamic Republic is an ideological regime: a government that never recognized Israel’s existence and has made its destruction an official slogan. With this in mind, an atomic bomb in its hands is more than mere deterrence; it could become a direct and actual threat to the region and the world.
Alongside all these dangers, the greatest concern in the minds of Iranians may well be the repetition of a familiar scenario:
Finishing the job
In 1991, after U.S. President George H. W. Bush ordered military operations to expel Saddam Hussein’s armies from Kuwait, he failed to finish his work when Saddam’s Baathist regime was on the verge of collapse. Saddam continued to rule for another 12 years with violence, repression and killings.
Iraqis who had grown hopeful were soon in the grip of even greater fear than before. Today, there are similar fears in Iran, as the Islamic Republic — having escaped certain death — will launch a violent crackdown on ordinary Iranians. Evidence of this has already emerged, with reports of dozens of arrests in Iranian cities, summons issued to civil society activists, an Internet shutdown and some military bases being put in a state of alert.
Iranians can expect to live through another, terrible period, and all because of a propaganda stunt by Trump who wouldn’t let the Israelis finish the job.
While the Tehran regime is preparing to celebrate its backdoor victory over Israel, many people know this celebration may herald the start of a darker period. It may be similar to the summer of 1988, when the government secretly executed thousands of political prisoners under the pretext of national security.
If the regime once again uses external threats to legitimize itself internally, Iranians can expect to live through another, terrible period, and all because of a propaganda stunt by Trump who wouldn’t let the Israelis finish the job.
Even the Islamic Republic’s missile attack on the empty Al-Udeid base in Qatar, launched in response to the brief U.S. bombings of Iranian nuclear sites, was a kind of coordinated show. It caused no casualties and was effectively the regime’s figleaf as a “vigorous” response, and strictly designed to contain and manage the crisis. This coordination between Trump, the Emir of Qatar and the Iranian regime is said to have been planned in advance.
Sacred rage
In short, events have saved the Iranian regime from what looked to be a certain collapse. Not for the first time in history, foreign intervention and backroom deal-making have trumped the will of the people.
However, one thing is clear: Iranians showed in recent days that they are ready to overcome the Islamic regime. Even without the help of governments, without a global media umbrella and without weapons, and armed only with hope, perseverance and a sacred rage at five decades of oppression and bloodshed.
The ceasefire has slowed the process of freedom, but it can never stop it.