As Nuclear Talks Resume, Iran Is Betting On Trump’s Vanity

-Analysis-

BERLIN — European and American politicians and experts are convinced that the Iranian regime is still aiming to build a nuclear bomb. Tehran, for its part, denies any intent to develop nuclear weapons and insists that, as a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it needs radioactive material purely for civilian purposes.

One of the biggest sticking points as Tehran sat back down for talks Friday with the E3 counterparts (France, Germany and the UK) is Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity. Analysts warn that this issue appears likely to block any agreement, and could spark a new escalation.

The reopening of talks in Istanbul come at a time when much remains uncertain. Little is known outside Iran about the condition of its nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan following the U.S. military strikes in June, which involved the use of special bombs.

“We know Iran’s nuclear facilities suffered significant damage and that the program has been set back,” said Richard Fontaine, from the Washington-based think tank Center for a New American Security (CNAS). “But we still don’t know exactly how badly they were hit or how far the program has been pushed back.”

It’s also unclear what happened to the enriched uranium Iran had stockpiled. Cornelius Adebahr, an Iran expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) in Berlin, suspects the leadership may have moved it during the U.S.-Israeli attacks. On June 13, Israel launched a major offensive targeting Iran’s nuclear and military sites, killing military leaders and nuclear scientists over several days. A ceasefire has been in effect since June 24.

Iran and the IAEA

The talks began with a sobering fact: According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran currently holds around 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%. Refined further to 90%, that would be enough to build nine nuclear bombs. The Iranian government maintains that this material is for peaceful use, but no one believes that. The IAEA notes that no other non-nuclear-weapon state enriches uranium to such levels. Fuel for civilian nuclear reactors typically contains only 3 to 5% enriched uranium. Still, the agency adds that it has no direct proof Iran is actually building a bomb.

There have been years of efforts to dissuade Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons. Because of its prohibited nuclear and missile programs, Iran has been under international sanctions since 2006, imposed by the U.S., UN, and EU. These measures have cut Iran off from global trade and crippled its economy, leaving the population to bear the brunt.

The IAEA must regain full access to all relevant Iranian nuclear facilities and be able to close the information gaps.

The country is ruled by a repressive regime of clerics and military officers who apparently see the bomb as vital to their survival. They consider the U.S. and Israel to be arch-enemies, and the destruction of Israel is part of their official doctrine. The regime is determined to cause harm to Israel and supports militant and terrorist groups like Hezbollah and Hamas across the region. Both organizations were significantly weakened by Israeli forces following Hamas’ terror attack in southern Israel in Oct. 7, 2023.

In the upcoming negotiations, European governments are urging Iran to agree to a deal by the end of August. They are seeking reliable, verifiable guarantees that Tehran will not build a bomb. The best way to achieve this, Adebahr says, is through a return to IAEA inspections. For this to happen, the agency must regain full access to all relevant Iranian nuclear facilities and be able to close the information gaps that emerged during years when inspectors were blocked.

Trump wants a deal

If no agreement is reached by the end of August, the Europeans are calling for the snapback mechanism to be activated. This mechanism, which expires in October, would automatically reinstate all UN Security Council sanctions that had been gradually lifted since 2015 in exchange for limits on Iran’s nuclear activities. That 2015 deal involved the U.S., China, Russia, France, Germany, the UK and the EU.

However, in 2018, at President Donald Trump’s urging, the U.S. pulled out of the agreement, citing its failure to address Iran’s missile program. As a result, strict U.S. sanctions returned. Iran responded by ramping up its nuclear program and is now considered a nuclear threshold state. During his second term, though, Trump restarted talks with Iran through Oman as a mediator. He now wants to resolve the nuclear dispute and is aiming for a deal.

Negotiations have thus resumed, although without U.S. participation. Iran has good reasons to engage, as a failure to solve the nuclear issue would lead to even harsher sanctions and deepen the country’s economic crisis. Adebahr calls sanctions a powerful tool. Both the U.S. and Israel are capable of flying over Iranian territory at will, and Israel has Iran under constant surveillance, CNAS’s Fontaine says. That means any serious attempt to restart the nuclear program would almost certainly trigger a violent response.

Threats and tactics

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said on U.S. television Monday that uranium enrichment has been “suspended for now due to the heavy damage.” But despite the serious damage caused by the U.S. strikes, Washington has not dropped its position. The U.S. had previously insisted that it would not accept any deal that allows Iran to continue enriching uranium.

Still, according to Middle East news website Al-Monitor, Iran’s UN ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani said in June that his country might be willing to transfer its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium to another country, or alternatively store them in Iran under IAEA supervision. Whether this would be accepted by Iran’s leadership remains uncertain.

The question of whether an agreement by the end of August is even realistic — especially without the U.S. or Israel at the table — remains open. A solution to the conflict without those two countries seems hard to imagine. But neither Adebahr nor Fontaine rule it out.

The alternative would be a continuation of the recent hostilities, which neither side wants.

“A deal is certainly within reach. All parties want one. The alternative would be a continuation of the recent hostilities, which neither side wants. And the US, after all, has been in indirect talks with Iran since Trump’s first term,” says Adebahr.

Fontaine adds, “It’s possible, though not guaranteed. Trump clearly wants a deal with Iran, and this round of talks could reveal what is actually achievable with Tehran — for both Europe and the U.S.”

Iran’s leadership has also threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty if UN sanctions are fully reinstated. But if it were to take that step, the regime would risk losing support from China and Russia, who do not want to see another nuclear state in the region.

This threat, therefore, appears more like a negotiating tactic. In reality, Iran’s negotiators may be betting on Trump’s vanity. “Iran is clearly weakened by the Israeli and American attacks, but since Trump is looking for a deal, they will likely try to get him to make concessions,” says Adebahr. In the end, what matters most to the U.S. president may not be the content of the deal, but how it looks. “And the Iranians know that.”