Iran’s Greatest Miscalculation: Playing The North Korea Card

Updated July 2, 2025 at 7:00 p.m.*

-Analysis-

The leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran have long held on to a strategic vision that followed the path taken by the communist Kim regime in North Korea: ensuring survival of the regime through military threats, nuclear program expansion, domestic repression and geopolitical blackmail of world powers.

The comparison was not only superficial and mistaken, but involved a dangerous miscalculation for the Islamic regime’s own survival. And the U.S. decision on June 22 to intervene directly in Israel’s war against Iran — by unleashing Operation “Midnight Hammer,” a series of major bombing raids targeting multiple Iranian nuclear sites — was for many the clearest sign of that strategic error. After 12 days of conflict, a weakened Iran was left with no choice but to agree to a ceasefire with the future of its nuclear program in grave doubt and a real risk of regime change.

North Korea instead is an isolated, poor and fundamentally non-strategic country in terms of energy markets, global trade and geopolitical influence. Iran is a country with much more at stake. It shares borders with seven Asian countries and controls access to the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy arteries. Broadly speaking, it possesses a crucial location at the crossroads of Central Asia, the Caucasus, Middle East and the Indian subcontinent.

This strategic position makes Iran’s presence in regional and international developments inevitable, but also burdens its governments with greater responsibilities. The world cannot simply ignore or isolate Iran as it has tried to do with North Korea, as the consequences for the region and the world are much more profound.

Proxy play

Then there’s the question of behavior. Despite its nuclear and missile threats, and the loud rhetoric that goes with it, North Korea does not interfere much in the internal affairs of other countries. Instead, the Iranian regime has been involved for years in backing proxy groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq and Syria, and even sought to exert influence in Africa and South America.

Such activities have earned the Tehran authorities a reputation of a constant factor of instability and a transnational threat, transforming the regime’s problematic nature from mere domestic crisis to international threat. Arab countries, Israel, the United States, Europe and even some Asian countries view the Islamic Republic not simply as a closed dictatorship, but as a “transnational destabilizing actor.”

Domestic differences

Unlike North Korean society, Iran’s is a youthful and educated society with a relative level of access to cyberspace and a history of protest movements. From the Green Movement of 2009 to the nationwide protests of November 2019 and the Mahsa Movement of 2022, Iran has managed to develop into a vibrant society with the potential for transformation from within.

In contrast, North Korean society is under complete military control, lives in absolute poverty and lacks the capacity for widespread internal resistance.

The way to save Iran is not to imitate Pyongyang, but to return to reason, legality and convergence with the world.

The Islamic Republic’s leaders imagined and still imagine they can continue to exist with nuclear weapons, internal repression and “blackmail” diplomacy, like the Kim Jong-un regime. But it was a seriously naive calculation. Iran is not North Korea, and the world is not ready to treat a destabilizing, ideological and terror-sponsoring power with the same appeasement approach, in such an important region as the Middle East.

WORLDCRUNCH EXTRA! 🗞️

Elsewhere in the press • As Iran’s regime faces an existential threat from the unprecedented Israeli assault, The Financial Times also questions the strategic choices the regime in Tehran has made over the past two decades.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has employed what’s come to be known as the “no war, no peace” strategy—using proxies and covert actions to deter adversaries without engaging in open conflict.

However, regional dynamics shifted after the October 7 Hamas attack in southern Israel, exposing Iran’s vulnerabilities and miscalculations. Israel swiftly and decisively countered by decimating Tehran’s “proxy” militias, not only Hamas in Gaza, but also Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel is now directly targeting Iranian military infrastructure, destroying key missile launchers and compromising command and control capabilities with advanced U.S.-supplied equipment.

The explosive escalation underscored Iran’s strategic gamble, now forcing it into an unwinnable confrontation that threatens its survival. With U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to enter the war, Tehran’s precarious position highlights the high stakes and unstable power balance in an already volatile Middle East. — Cecilia Laurent Monpetit (read more about the Worldcrunch method here)

Finally, we have seen how continuing this path and the clerical regime’s miscalculation have not only further isolated Iran and worsened the economic and security pressures of recent years, but ultimately provoked a war that is now inflicting an immense cost on Iran and Iranians.

The way to save Iran is not to imitate Pyongyang, but to return to reason, legality and a constructive understanding and convergence with the world. That can happen with a fundamental change in the structure of governance, and a change of regime.

*Originally published June 22, 2025, this article was updated July 2, 2025 with update on ceasefire, and enriched media.