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photo of ​Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant with IDF troops on Sunday
FOCUS: Israel-Palestine War
Pierre Haski

Make No Mistake, Israel Is Ready To Restart This War

The Israel-Hamas temporary ceasefire may not end today, but it will end. But when the war in Gaza resumes, the Israeli offensive against Hamas may be different.

-Analysis-

PARIS — It's been six days since the war between Israel and Hamas was put on hold. And yet, no conditions have been met for this truce to become a formal ceasefire.

Indeed, there are no serious proposals on the table for a more lasting solution, and the truce has failed to address any issues beyond the release of hostages.

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Thus the question we're facing is when the Israeli government will decide to resume its military operations in Gaza: tomorrow, when the two-day truce expires? Or after a new extension to allow the release of hostages, men included this time? The bosses of the CIA and Mossad are busy in Qatar trying to negotiate this point.

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Geert Wilders, The European Union's Biggest Problem Since Brexit
Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Geert Wilders, The European Union's Biggest Problem Since Brexit

The victory of Geert Wilders' far-right party in this week's elections in the Netherlands shows that politics in Europe, at both the national and European Union level, has fundamentally failed to overcome its contradictions.

Updated Nov. 28, 2023 at 6:15 p.m.

-Analysis-

PARIS — For a long time, Geert Wilders, recognizable by his peroxide hair, was an eccentric, disconcerting and yet mostly marginal figure in Dutch politics. He was known for his public outbursts against Muslims, particularly Moroccans who are prevalent in the Netherlands, which once led to a court convicting him for the collective insulting of a nationality.

Consistently ranking third or fourth in poll results, this time he emerged as the leader in Wednesday's national elections. The shock is commensurate with his success: 37 seats out of 150, twice as many as in the previous legislature.

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The recipe is the same everywhere: a robustly anti-immigration agenda that capitalizes on fears. Wilders' victory in the Netherlands reflects a prevailing trend across the continent, from Sweden to Portugal, Italy and France.

We must first see if Wilders manages to put together the coalition needed to govern. Already the first roadblock came this week with the loss of one of his top allies scouting for coalition partners from other parties: Gom van Strien, a senator in Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) was forced to resign from his role after accusations of fraud resurfaced in Dutch media.

Nonetheless, at least three lessons can be drawn from Wilders' far-right breakthrough in one of the founding countries of the European Union.

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photo of people in a road with an israeli flag
FOCUS: Israel-Palestine War
Pierre Haski

Wartime And Settlements: Preview Of Israel's Post-Netanyahu Era

Heated debate in Israel and abroad over the increase in the budget for settlements in the occupied West Bank is a reminder that wartime national unity will not outlast a deep ideological divide.

-Analysis-

PARIS — During wartime, the most divisive issues are generally avoided. Not in Israel though, where national unity does not prevent ideological divisions from breaking through into the public space.

Benny Gantz, a longtime Benjamin Netanyahu nemesis, who became a member of the War Cabinet after October 7, criticized the government's draft budget on Monday. It may sound trivial, but his target was the increased spending allocated for Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank. Gantz felt that all resources should go towards the war effort or supporting the suffering economy — not the settlers.

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The affair did not go unnoticed internationally. Josep Borrell, the European High Representative for Foreign Policy, said that he was "appalled" by this spending on settlers in the middle of this war.

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photo of people marching with the sign Bring Them Home Now
FOCUS: Israel-Palestine War
Pierre Haski

Why Netanyahu Has Little Choice But To Extend The Ceasefire

The Israeli government has declared it is opposed to any ceasefire with Hamas. But one of its key objectives — and the top priority for Israelis — is to recover hostages. And only the ceasefire can achieve that...

-Analysis-

PARIS — Monday marks the fourth and final day of the ceasefire agreed upon between Israel and Hamas. Does that mean the war resumes Tuesday in Gaza? Probably not, and here is why...

During the first three days of the ceasefire, 40 Israeli hostages, mostly women and children, were returned to the Jewish state. According to the terms of the agreement, three times as many Palestinian prisoners were released. Additionally, 35 Thai nationals and one Filipino, also kidnapped on Oct. 7, were released separately, as part of a negotiation that went through Iran. And one Russian citizen, according to Hamas, "in response to the efforts of Russian President [Vladimir] Putin and in appreciation of the Russian position in support of the Palestinian cause."

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A fourth exchange is scheduled for Monday. Meanwhile, over these same past three days, hundreds of aid trucks have been able to enter Gaza, where humanitarian conditions are catastrophic.

What will happen Tuesday, considering that Hamas still holds more than 180 hostages? All communication channels have been hard at work for the past 24 hours, to extend this ceasefire and facilitate the release of more hostages and prisoners.

Qatar has been leading the negotiation efforts. An envoy from Doha arrived in Israel on a special flight on Saturday — something worth noting, given that the two countries have no diplomatic relations. The United States is also very active, with President Joe Biden personally intervening on Saturday, when the agreement showed signs of impending collapse.

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Hamas v. Netanyahu: Who Has More To Gain From Hostages-For-Prisoners Deal
FOCUS: Israel-Palestine War
Pierre Haski

Hamas v. Netanyahu: Who Has More To Gain From Hostages-For-Prisoners Deal

The agreement for a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was shaped by the political situation in Israel and the Palestinian territories. But now, the politics on the ground could change moving forward.

-Analysis-

PARIS — If the terms of the hostage-for-prisoners agreement between Israel and Hamas are strictly adhered to, we're set to witness scenes filled with emotion on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides.

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There is obviously nothing in common between civilians, sometimes very young children, taken hostage on October 7 on Israeli territory, and prisoners convicted for activities, sometimes violent, related to the Palestinian nationalist movement.

What's shared instead is the central place these scenes are bound to occupy in the collective imagination of both peoples and, therefore, the political impact it will carry.

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photo of someone holding a poster of a hostage
FOCUS: Israel-Palestine War
Pierre Haski

Bibi Blinked: How The Ceasefire Deal Could Flip Israel's Whole Gaza War Logic

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pushed ahead a deal negotiated via Qatar, for a four-day truce and an exchange of 50 hostages for 150 Palestinian prisoners. Though the humanitarian and political pressure was mounting, Israel's all-out assault is suddenly halted, with unforeseen consequences for the future.

Updated Nov. 22, 2023 at 8:55 p.m.

-Analysis-

PARIS — It's the first piece of good news in 46 days of war. In the early hours of Wednesday, Israel agreed to a deal that included a four-day ceasefire and the release of some of the hostages held by Hamas — 30 children and 20 women — in exchange for 150 Palestinian prisoners, again women and children. The real question is what happens next.

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But first, this agreement, negotiated through the intermediary of Qatar, whose role is essential in this phase, must be implemented right away. This is a complex negotiation, because unlike the previous hostage-for-prisoner exchanges, it is taking place in the midst of a major war.

On the Palestinian side, although Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is present in Doha, he does not make the decision alone — he must have the agreement of the leaders of the military wing, who are hiding somewhere in Gaza. It takes 24 hours to send a message back and forth. As you can imagine, it's not as simple as a phone call.

And on the Israeli side, a consensus had to be built around the agreement. Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right allies were opposed to the deal — in line with their eradication logic — even at the cost of Israeli lives. But the opposition of these discredited parties was ignored, and that will leave its mark.

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Javier Milei, Revolt Of The Global Disaffected Is Far From Over
Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Javier Milei, Revolt Of The Global Disaffected Is Far From Over

Argentina has elected a "paleolibertarian" outsider with little experience, and by a wide margin. What does this say about the existing structures of power around the democratic world?

-Analysis-

PARIS — If it were only a matter of far-right politics, the election of Javier Milei as Argentina's next president would fit into a relatively classic electoral pattern. But this winner, with a very comfortable 56% of votes, is much more than that: this is what makes his case intriguing and raises troubling questions.

He is first and foremost a "radical libertarian," according to the Financial Times, which generally does not engage in hyperbole. Or "paleolibertarian," a doctrine that advocates "anarcho-capitalism," according to the French websiteLe Grand Continent.

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Libertarianism is a political philosophy born in the United States that advocates for total individual freedom in the face of state power. Javier Milei, who has a way with words, summarizes it as follows: "Between the mafia and the state, I prefer the mafia. The mafia has codes, it keeps its commitments, it does not lie, it is competitive."

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Photo of ​U.S. President Joe Biden walking toward the left of the image as he leaves the White House on Nov. 14
FOCUS: Israel-Palestine War
Pierre Haski

Americans Don't Understand Biden — And Biden Doesn't Trust Netanyahu

Challenged back home, U.S. President Joe Biden has just published an op-ed in the Washington Post in which he outlines a future for the Palestinian territories that's different from the one envisaged by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and threatens violent settlers in the West Bank with sanctions. But where are the teeth?

-Analysis-

PARIS — Joe Biden has a problem, and then some.

The first is that a large proportion of Americans don't understand his policy of support for Israel and his refusal to call for a ceasefire. This is particularly true among young people, with 70% of 18-34 year-olds saying they disagree with the way he has been handling the conflict.

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The second problem is that the president of the United States does not trust Benjamin Netanyahu, the man leading Israel at such a crucial time. He already didn't trust him before October 7, and he is wary of his ideas for the post-war period in the Palestinian territories.

Thus unable to satisfy his opponents on the ceasefire question (he wants to give the Israeli army a chance to destroy Hamas's infrastructure in Gaza), Joe Biden has published an op-ed in the Washington Post to show his disgruntled constituents that he won't let Netanyahu dictate the agenda, and perhaps to gain time.

For the first time, the American president threatens to impose sanctions against violent settlers in the occupied West Bank. This is a new development, after years of ceremonial condemnation, to no avail, of Israel's expanding colonization efforts, often through violence.

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