-Analysis-
When U.S. President Donald Trump announced that “a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” had been agreed on to end the brief war between Israel and Iran, Israeli jets were still flying in Iranian skies.
Abbas Araqchi, the Iranian foreign minister, initially contradicted Trump’s announcement, but Israel swiftly recognized and accepted it. And the “12-day war,” we were told, was over.
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu boasted that the “bilateral ceasefire” was agreed to in full coordination with Trump, one of multiple indication that this “ceasefire” is more a tactical, personal and temporary tool designed and managed by Trump and Netanyahu in the framework of specific objectives.
A week after the swift end to hostilities, it is important to look more closely at the ambiguities and motivations of the deal, which we must begin with general principles and definitions of war and peace and international law.
Armistice v. Ceasefire
The Hague Convention on the Laws and Customs of War on Land, first adopted in 1899 and revised in 1907, defines “armistice” or the cessation of hostilities in Article 36 as being based on bilateral or multilateral agreement, in written form or formal in nature, and with the existence of enforcement provisions.
A ceasefire, in contrast, is less formal and based on acts on the ground. The purpose of a ceasefire is usually to reduce tension and interrupt fighting to allow the injured to be rescued, provision of humanitarian aid to civilians, exchanges of prisoners or the passage of mediators through a war zone.
The purpose of an armistice is to formally end hostilities. A ceasefire is not legally binding, unlike the armistice that is typically written down and supervised, perhaps by third parties. Finally and most importantly, a ceasefire is temporary, while the armistice is intended as a prelude to definitive peace.
Considering these differences, the ceasefire declared between Israel and Iran is inherently fragile.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has no relations with Israel or the U.S. government, and there have been no talks between them on a “cessation of hostilities.” This prompts the question, what was the motivation for declaring this “ceasefire”?
Alternative motives
As Israel accepted the ceasefire immediately after Trump’s announcement, and since 24 hours before its announcement, Israel had increased the intensity of its strikes across Iran, one may conclude this was the result of prior arrangement between Trump and Netanyahu. Its motives could be:
Israeli Air Force fatigue: After 12 days of continuous fighting, the Israeli Air Force was under severe strain. Daily flights by warplanes lasting up to eight hours had created an urgent need for pilots to rest, for equipment maintenance and the provision of spare parts.
Depleted ammunition: Israel’s air and missile defense systems needed rapid reconstruction and fresh supplies of ammunition and interceptor missiles in the face of Iranian threats. The ceasefire was considered an opportunity to rebuild defensive capabilities.
Hunting Khamenei: Another goal of this pause was to obtain new information on the whereabouts of the Iranian regime’s leaders, including the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who may be targeted in the next round of operations.
Boosting Trump: During his election campaign, Trump kept emphasizing that the United States would not enter another war in his presidential term, especially in the Middle East. The United States’ effective entry into war with Iran and bombing of its nuclear facilities, specifically Fordow, using B2 aircraft and for the first time, the 13.6-ton GBU-57A/B bomb as the most destructive non-nuclear bomb, might have prompted protests from Trump supporters.
By announcing a ceasefire between Israel and the Tehran regime 24 hours after entering the war, Trump could present his involvement as a sign of strength and confirming the theory of “achieving peace through strength.” This would also allow him to justify any future reengagement more easily, both to this voter base and the international community. Ostensibly, he would have the evidence to show them that he did everything necessary to reach an agreement and avoid entering the war, but was rebuffed by a recalcitrant regime in Tehran.
Precarious affair
Thus we might conclude that the ceasefire is a possible tactic to mislead the Iranian regime: while Tehran is enjoying a “diplomatic breather,” behind the scenes, Israel is busy preparing a new round of strikes.
But the Iranian regime can also put the ceasefire to good use, for itself, taking it as an opportunity to reorganize its battered and scattered forces, engage in damage assessment and rebuild military capabilities. Also, as the regime includes ordinary Iranians among its enemies and fears that a war situation could provoke protests that could even spin out of control, the ceasefire is giving it the chance to reorganize its repressive forces in line with changing domestic scenarios.
Considering all this, the ceasefire is, in legal and practical terms, a highly precarious affair. There is no official document, and the only guarantor, of sorts, is an erratic and whimsical U.S. president who clearly favors Israel. Netanyahu may resume strikes at any moment, alleging some provocation or violation on Tehran’s part, and the Islamic Republic itself sees this not as an agreement but a temporary situation dependent on the absence of Israeli aggression.
Possible U.S.-Iranian talks
Should the United States and Tehran resume their conversations of recent months, the United States will likely use the “ceasefire” as leverage. It will tell the Iranian side it stopped Israel, and that it was now “your turn” to make concessions or face Israel’s unbridled actions.
The ceasefire may be described as dual strategic deception, preparing Israel for more strikes while fomenting a suitable psychological and political ambiance for Trump, both on the domestic and the international stage.
Both Israel and Trump’s America know the Tehran regime is gravely weakened after 12 days of strikes, notably on key army commanders and security personnel. This regime has lost face among its supporters at home and abroad, as its extravagant claims, and threats, were shown to be nothing but absurd, vapid boastfulness.
Khamenei’s credibility as a commander has been further eroded: the head of a regime that proudly touts martyrdom as one of its essential values, appears — while he has disappeared into a bunker — as tired and cowardly. He is being mocked online.
It has become clear that the regime and the Revolutionary Guards rely primarily on their drone and missile capabilities. While in principle, Iran is still able to strike at Israel or American bases, its supply of armaments is now severely degraded and much less threatening. Iran’s skies are open and defenseless. Israeli and U.S. jets can now fly there with greater ease.
The Israeli secret service or Mossad has also shown its influence inside Iran and ability to penetrate command centers, implement multiple and complex operations and even recruit local collaborators.
Iranians meanwhile did not show any significant support for the regime, and their silence for 12 days might be read as implicit support for the attacks on a hated regime. Protests or criticisms of Israel in some countries had little effect on opinion there, with their sparse and feeble nature further underlining the Iranian regime’s isolation. None of its proxy forces — on which it spent vast sums over decades — did anything significant to help it, further exposing the emptiness of the regime’s threat to “set the region on fire.”
Israel and the United States know Tehran is weaker than it was weeks ago. Yet even if it is wounded, the regime refuses to surrender, living off of its ideology, and hoping for time to regain its strength to strike back. But can it deceive a vigilant Israel or the United States? Israel can resume its strikes at will, and cite any pretext to attack the regime.. and the targets remaining in its database.
