-Analysis-
PARIS — The United States deployed no fewer than 125 aircraft, including the famed B-2 stealth bombers, to carry out multiple strikes on Iranian nuclear sites overnight early Sunday local time. This marks a major turning point in a war that is bound to still hold surprises. Even so, some immediate lessons can already be drawn from this escalation in the Middle East.
The first is that the undisputed master of the regional power game is now Benjamin Netanyahu. Scorned at home after the security disaster of October 7, 2023, the Israeli Prime Minister can now claim to have, in just 20 months, decapitated the Palestinian militant group Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, destroyed the Syrian army following Bashar al-Assad’s fall, and, just ten days ago, launched the war against the Islamic Republic of Iran — a campaign he has dreamt of waging for nearly two decades.
For the latest news & views from every corner of the world, Worldcrunch Today is the only truly international newsletter. Sign up here.
Just last year, U.S. President Joe Biden had vetoed Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear program. Not only did Netanyahu persuade his successor Donald Trump to let him proceed, but he also managed to bring in Trump alongside Israel to strike, outside any legal framework, sites that only American firepower could reach.
This is unprecedented — and represents a genuine strategic shift, granting Netanyahu unparalleled influence.
Consider how much the landscape has changed: just months ago, the U.S. was still pursuing a diplomatic resolution that would include a reconciliation between Israel and Saudi Arabia — the missing piece of the Abraham Accords that saw several Arab nations recognize the Jewish state.
That paradigm has now shifted: Israel finds itself the hegemonic power in the Middle East, having demonstrated military supremacy and renewed its influence over Trump’s America.
Against the interventionists
Just two months ago, Trump was on a triumphant tour of the Gulf, without even stopping in Israel, and gave a sweeping speech condemning “interventionists” who acted in “complex societies they didn’t even understand.” He appeared to be turning his back — just as he had promised — on the military adventurism of the past.
What’s most astonishing over the past ten days is Netanyahu’s ability to convince Trump to follow him. The U.S. President may boast of the success of American airpower, but in the Middle East, it is Netanyahu who is reaping the rewards.
The real test lies in Gaza
Is this success sustainable? That is the central question. Like Trump, Netanyahu believes in “peace through strength,” but so far, he has not demonstrated political acumen to match the power of Israel’s military and intelligence services.
Political solution?
He may be the master of the game — but what are the rules? Force is a means, not an end nor solution in itself.
More than in Iran, which has been severely weakened, the real test lies in Gaza: even as warplanes pound Iran, the Palestinian tragedy continues, with daily deaths at food distribution sites and no political resolution in sight.
Israel can maintain its dominance through force for some time, but its long-term integration into the region — especially with Saudi Arabia — will inevitably require a political arrangement, particularly for the Palestinians. Netanyahu surely knows the familiar saying: “A war is easier to start than it is to finish.” It may come back to haunt him.
