-Analysis-
GAZA CITY — The 1967 Arab-Israeli war ended in defeat for “revolutionary” and “progressive” Arab regimes — according to the terms of that time. Despite the great, bitter and surprising defeat that they suffered, those regimes considered themselves “victorious” merely because they were not overthrown during the so-called Six-Day War, and continued to rule.
Yet their defeat established Israel as a regional power in the Middle East; Israel strengthened its international status, destroyed the Egyptian and Syrian armies, occupied lands many times its size (Sinai, the Golan Heights and the West Bank) and came to control geographic Palestine, from the river to the sea.
The problem is that history repeats itself as a tragedy or as a painful and humiliating farce. Today and since Israel began its brutal genocidal war against the Palestinians of Gaza — following Hamas’ Al-Aqsa Flood operation on Oct. 7, 2023 — some of the most promoted claims have been that “Israel did not achieve its objectives,” that “the resistance wins when it does not lose, and Israel loses when it does not win,” that “our losses are tactical while Israel’s losses are strategic” and that the ground is shaking under Israel.
In the same vein, on June 26, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei praised his country’s “victory over the false Zionist entity,” which was “almost crushed under the blows of the Islamic Republic and fell collapsed.” Khamenei also claimed victory against the United States as “here too, the Islamic Republic emerged victorious and responded in turn to America with a harsh slap; it targeted one of America’s most important bases in the region, the Al Udeid Air Base, and inflicted damage on it.”
This was followed by a statement from Sheikh Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s current leader, that “Iran emerged victorious after 12 days of aggression against it, and that the ceasefire is considered a declaration of victory for the Islamic Republic.” Qassem said that Iran thwarted the three goals of the aggression: first, canceling nuclear enrichment; second, stopping the missile program; and third, toppling the regime by targeting Khamenei.
Such phrases are disconnected from reality and from the true balance of power.
Following an Israeli attack on Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon, Qassem said on June 28 that “the continued existence of the party is in itself a victory… we are always winners: by victory or martyrdom.” Such phrases are disconnected from reality and from the true balance of power, and are used for three reasons.
Rhetorical claims
First, they are used to cover up severe material and human losses in that war, by drawing comparisons to the eventual triumphs of insurgent forces in Algeria (against France) and Vietnam (against the United States), regardless of how valid these analogies may be in today’s context. Second, they are used to justify political and military miscalculations, framing confrontations with Israel as inevitable — rather than as choices made by fallible humans.
Third, they are used to rewrite public memory, and in the hopes that populations forget similar such phrases in the past — such as claims that Israel was on the brink of collapse or incapable of defending itself — while exaggerating the powers of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iran.
Yet Israel’s destructive war over the past 21 months has shown the fragility and emptiness of those phrases, their lack of realism and their denial of reality. Israel shown that it can wage a long-term war, endure great human and material losses, engage in war inside and outside and even wage war on multiple fronts, from Gaza to Iran, passing through the West Bank, Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
The brutal truth
Israel has overwhelming superiority not only in military power but also in economic strength, technological sophistication, intelligence capabilities and human resource management. It is also believed to be the Middle East’s only nation with nuclear weapons — even though its leaders have refused to confirm or deny their existence — and its military superiority is guaranteed by the United States and other Western powers, who view it as a key strategic ally.
It is unfortunate, of course, that Israel was able to achieve numerous gains on all these fronts in this war — to the point that it has virtually wiped out the so-called “axis of resistance and defiance.” It now dominates Palestinians from the river to the sea — more than at any other time in its history — and has undermined Hezbollah militarily and politically in Lebanon, while retaining its verbal power.
This included the collapse of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime in Syria in December 2024. And it even includes the return of Iran to its former size beyond its borders, after destroying its nuclear power, a large portion of its missile capabilities and its military infrastructure.
Yet the Israeli government also uses this “victory” rhetoric.
It is now clear that the Israel-Iran war has stopped — on June 24 by a decision from U.S. President Donald Trump 12 days after its outbreak — but without any certainty from the U.S. or Israel that this pause is definitive. And an end of combat on the Iranian front does not mean Israel will end its operations on other fronts, particularly in Gaza or Lebanon, where it continues to target Hezbollah sites. From this, we can conclude that Israel has not yet stopped its war. It has not been satisfied with undermining the “axis of resistance and defiance,” and it seeks to impose a new reality of “rules of engagement” that prevents the formation of any military position hostile to it tens of kilometers from its borders.
This also means that Israel was able to dismantle the communication among the parts of the axis of resistance and defiance by isolating them one by one while the axis did not operate as a unified case during the 21 months of the war on Gaza until it was Iran’s turn to be isolated by Israel (and the United States).
Israel’s “victory”
Yet the Israeli government — under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir — also uses this “victory” rhetoric. Their “victory” will cost Israel a lot.
It will strengthen Israel’s isolation in world, both among the public and among governments. It will also cement its position as an aggressive fortress in the Middle East with which coexistence is impossible. It is transforming from being a liberal and democratic state (for its Jewish citizens) into another Middle Eastern state (religious, corrupt and dictatorial), according to many Israeli analysts.
In an analysis for Israeli daily Haaretz on June 24, for example, Gidi Weitz wrote: “Now, after striking the ‘head of the snake’ and enlisting the world’s most powerful superpower in the attack, Netanyahu stands alone at the summit – unopposed, with no political rival to challenge him and a defense establishment too intimidated to voice even the faintest dissent… Netanyahu’s growing power, fueled by nationalist ecstasy, may embolden him and his allies to seize what’s left of Israel’s democracy and finally carry out their grand plan. It’s doubtful that a nuclear Iran poses a greater threat.”
