-Analysis-
It was the first time since the beginning of the Russian invasion that Volodymyr Zelensky has shown up in a suit. Sure, it was a black, military-style suit, and there was no tie — but it gave material for Russian propaganda commentators to cheer as if it were a sign of surrender.
But what was really on Zelensky’s mind at Wednesday’s NATO summit at the Hague is that this is not the time to irritate Donald Trump, especially now that the American president is enjoying what he considers his greatest triumph in Iran. A war “concluded in just 12 days,” which inevitably contrasts with that other conflict that is “too complex,” for the American leader to have been able to keep his pledge of ending it in 24 hours.
And the Russia-Ukraine war is not getting any less complex. The near daily killing of civilians in Ukraine are ending up at the bottom of international news pages, amid the ongoing events in the Middle East that are diverting diplomatic and military resources. Indeed, there still has been no official confirmation from Washington of the continuation of economic and especially military aid to the resistance in Kyiv.
Changing sides
The NATO summit can be judged, at least in the part revealed to the public, as a glass half full or half empty, depending on expectations of those pushing for more support for Ukraine. It is true that Trump spoke more about Iran than Ukraine, and did not provide explicit answers to questions about assistance to Kyiv, limiting himself to ambiguous phrases such as “You know, they’re very hard to get. We need them too.”
It is true that in the final statement the condemnation of the Russian invasion was toned down, and that Trump avoided openly criticizing Vladimir Putin, saying that he is “badly advised” and “confused,” without specifying by whom and in what.
But it is also true that NATO announced tens of billions in aid to Ukraine for next year, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte defined Kyiv’s bid for membership as “irreversible,”, despite Washington’s opposition making this prospect distant for now. If we want to analyze the adjectives used by the American president, this time the “complicated” one was Putin, while Zelensky was “nice,” and the invitation to “end the war” this time was addressed only to the head of the Kremlin.
Indeed, it looks as though the efforts made by Zelensky – who met with Trump for the first time since the impromptu face-to-face meeting at the Vatican after the death of Pope Francis – is paying off.
The core message for Trump from the Ukrainian president: “Putin is not winning.”
So, no, the change of clothes did not imply a change of tactics, and the Ukrainian president did not spare his American counterpart the gruesome details about Russian attacks, and the mistreatment of Ukrainian prisoners returned in recent exchanges.
Zelensky’s most immediate goal is to finally bring the head of the White House to Ukraine, to show him the reality of war.
Regardless of Trump’s shifting moods, Ukraine’s top priority need in the face of escalating Russian attacks is air defense. Zelensky revealed that 10% of all 2,736 drones Moscow has launched against Ukraine since February 2022 were launched this month.
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Know more • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky turned heads as he entered the NATO conference at the Hague on Wednesday, donning a black jacket, a black undershirt, black slacks, and black combat boots. He met with U.S. President Donald Trump in what the Ukrainian leader described as a “long and substantive meeting.”
Zelensky’s iconic military-style clothing has been a consistent public gesture of solidarity with frontline Ukrainian troops since the war began. But the sartorial choice drew criticism earlier this year during the Ukrainian leader’s infamous visit to the Oval Office back in February when Trump and U.S. Vice President JD Vance berated Zelensky. He wore a military-style black sweatshirt and the first thing Trump said to him was: “You’re all dressed up today.” Later an American reporter asked Zelensky: “Why don’t you wear a suit? Do you own a suit?”
According to the Kyiv Post, the Ukrainian leader may have worn the suit Wednesday to avoid a similar confrontation with the Trump administration at the NATO summit.
— Emma Albright (read more about the Worldcrunch method here)
Russia Vs. Iran
The “we’ll see” with which Trump, in a press conference, responded to questions from Ukrainian journalists about the possible concession of air defense, was far from being a promise. If anything, it is an invitation to make one’s offer, to show one’s cards, addressed to both Zelensky and Putin. It is very premature to hope, as some Ukrainian analysts do, that Trump’s long-awaited anti-Russian turn has arrived. It nevertheless seems as though the “Ukraine-for-Iran” trade-off with Russia, hypothesized by many commentators, has not taken place.
Putin is not a solution, he remains a problem.
Indeed, it was the American leader himself who quipped a response to Putin’s proposal to “help” in the mediation with Tehran: “You can help us instead with Russia,” he replied.
Putin is not a solution, he remains a problem, and the attempt to assert his privileged relationship with the Ayatollahs’ regime – as he did in the past with Assad – has not delivered enough value. Also because the Kremlin does not actually have great levers of influence on Tehran: it is true that it supplies gas to Iran, but it is also true that Iranian military technologies of drones and missiles are crucial in the offensive in Ukraine.
Hundreds of Iran-designed Shahed drones are now being assembled in Russian factories; and if anything, it is Putin’s military that depends on Iran.
To decide to resolutely side with Khamenei’s regime, for example, by passing on nuclear technologies, the Russian strongman would have to definitively side with the “axis of evil.” That would put him in the company of the Iranians and North Koreans, abandoning his ambition to divide up the world with Trump and Xi Jinping.
It should also be noted that, apart from their hatred for the U.S., Russians and Iranians do not have many interests in common. Just this week, the exiled magazine Insider revealed how Moscow’s secret services have been infiltrating Iran for years, considering it in the long run a strategic threat, rather than an ally.
