AMMAN — Political anxiety in Amman rises with every siren blaring as Iranian drones and ballistic missiles cross Jordanian airspace in retaliation for Israel’s air war launched last week.
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This nervousness contrasts with that of millions of astonished residents who climb onto their rooftops to document flashes of golden objects in the kingdom’s sky before most of them are intercepted by Royal Air Force fighter jets and air defense systems.
In a flash, videos and images are uploaded to social media platforms — sometimes with encouraging or sarcastic comments — indifferent to the sirens and official calls for caution.
Some observers of these “shooting stars” feel a sense of satisfaction that Iran has broken the “monopoly of retaliation” with a forceful step against the Israeli army which has been engaged in a war of extermination and starvation in Gaza since October 2023.
Older Jordanians remember the volleys of Scud missiles that Saddam Hussein’s Iraq launched toward Israel more than three decades ago in response to the U.S.-led international coalition’s invasion in the First Gulf War. Some of them passed over Jordanian skies en route to their targets.
Overnight, Amman found itself in the crossfire between Israel and Iran amid fears that the conflict would expand and open the door to American intervention on Israel’s side against Iran and its allies: Russia, China and Pakistan — all members of the nuclear club.
An “existential” war
Any American involvement fuels expectations that remnants of the “axis of resistance” including Iran-aligned Shia factions in Iraq may retaliate by attacking bases in various Arab countries or targeting U.S. commercial interests or citizens residing in the region.
After absorbing the shock of the war that Netanyahu imposed on Iran unexpectedly — while Washington was preparing for a new meeting with the Iranians in Oman — Amman reiterated its refusal to allow any party to use its airspace as it did during the previous two Iran-Israel clashes. It emphasized that it would not be a battlefield for any conflict.
But Iran did not adhere to this warning, forcing Jordan to act to intercept missiles to “preserve its sovereignty” and avoid risks to its security and stability in a volatile region — an action that angered supporters of the axis of resistance within the kingdom.
Domestic risks
The most severe scenarios include the possibility of cells affiliated with Iran and its allies crossing toward Israel through the borders of Jordan, Syria and Lebanon, which could draw Israel into further escalation.
Amman also fears the fall of drones and ballistic missiles on infrastructure and vital facilities such as hospitals, oil refineries, gas stations and power plants — posing a threat to citizens’ lives.
So far, there have been no casualties in the kingdom due to drone shrapnel although some pieces fell near homes in the north and south causing material damage.
As in previous conflicts, Israel complied with Amman’s request not to use Jordanian airspace en route to Iran.
In contrast, Israeli fighter jets are taking alternate routes to bypass Jordanian airspace when targeting Iran. They depart from their bases and fly over Syrian and Iraqi airspace toward Iran’s western borders to deliver their heavy payloads, including air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles and guided bombs to destroy military and nuclear installations in Tehran and other sites.
A Jordanian official, speaking to Daraj on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation, said that Israel, as in previous conflicts, complied with Amman’s request not to use Jordanian airspace en route to Iran.
Political stance
Jordan, Egypt, the Gulf states and others condemned Israel’s aggression against Iran in the strongest terms. They expressed concern over the continued escalation and its repercussions on the region, including the potential to ignite a broader conflict with grave consequences for regional and international peace. They considered the Israeli attack a blatant violation of international law and the UN Charter.
The Arab street was divided based on the depth of political and sectarian fissures and public, elite and political positions ranged in their classification of friend and foe.
There is no affinity between Iran and the majority of Arab states that are part of what is known as the Arab moderation front according to analysts. In Jordan, the extent of the divergence between the two countries’ agendas has been evident since the kingdom sided with Iraq against Iran in those two countries’ war from 1980–1988.
Amman has long viewed Tehran, the leader of the axis of resistance, as hostile to its policies tied to strategic political and military relations with the United States. This connection is supported by the 1994 peace treaty with Israel ,which Amman saw as a prelude to establishing an independent Palestinian state and normalizing relations between other Arab countries and Israel.
The King is worried about diverting attention from the Palestinian cause and the atrocities Israel is committing in Gaza.
Under the rule of the ultra-Zionist right, Israel has become a source of both popular and official concern for Jordan. The future will be filled with existential challenges.
Royal Bridges
Against the backdrop of a region in flames, King Abdullah II has been meeting with politicians and media figures to discuss the challenges on all fronts and Amman’s efforts to navigate the phase with minimal losses.
The King expressed concern that the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel might divert attention from the Palestinian cause and the atrocities Israel is committing in Gaza. He appeared worried about Israeli escalation in the West Bank in recent months and the construction of new settlements on occupied land.
Bilateral dialogue has been frozen since before the war on Gaza began. Jordan’s policy of moderation clashes with Netanyahu’s aggressive drive to subjugate the region under Israeli influence after dismantling the axis of resistance.
The King affirmed Jordan’s close monitoring of European-Arab efforts to hold an international conference that recognizes the Palestinian state as part of a return to formulas that allow its establishment.
Netanyahu will focus on resolving the Palestinian issue at the expense of neighboring countries
After the war on Iran began early Friday, Arab countries postponed the UN conference led by France and Saudi Arabia just days before it was scheduled in New York. Both Washington and Israel worked to derail it before it could begin.
Trump vowed diplomatic punishment for governments participating in the “two-state solution” conference. He said the conference “does not help efforts to save lives, end the war in Gaza or free the hostages.” Israel, for its part, threatened to annex the West Bank if France recognized the Palestinian state.
Price of arrogance
Israel capitalized on the events of October 7, 2023 to implement a scenario aimed at dismantling the influence of Iran — the leader of the axis of resistance — and its regional proxies: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the West Bank and Gaza. It is now targeting the Houthis in Yemen and using the war on Iran to disrupt its nuclear program and break its military strength. Later, it will target Iran-aligned factions in Iraq.
Afterward, Netanyahu will focus on resolving the Palestinian issue at the expense of neighboring countries by annexing most of the West Bank after reoccupying large parts of Gaza and advancing into Syrian and Lebanese border areas. In this context, he will try to empty Palestinian territories of their native inhabitants in an effort to eliminate the ticking demographic time bomb.
According to the U.S. ambassador to Israel, Washington — the unlimited sponsor of Tel Aviv — no longer supports the establishment of a Palestinian state in its historical homeland but suggests creating it in another Islamic country.
During a meeting last weekend, the Jordanian King reiterated that any attempt to deport Palestinians across the Jordan River would be considered a declaration of war and that he would use the army to stop it regardless of the cost. Egypt also insists on rejecting the displacement of Gaza’s residents to its territory.
Saudi Arabia has set red lines regarding normalization with Israel
In contrast, Israel’s atrocities in the war of extermination and starvation have helped bring Jordan and the Gulf states closer. Some attendees said they felt reassured when the King stated that the horrors of the war on Gaza had restored Arab unity after years of fragmentation. Jordan-Gulf relations are strong. Contrary to previous expectations, he said his relationship with the Saudi crown prince is solid and he can rely on Riyadh to support Jordan’s position.
Saudi Arabia, for example, has set red lines regarding normalization with Israel, linking it to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Jordanian assessments suggest that the Arab states that signed the Abraham Accords are now distancing themselves from economic rapprochement with Israel after the Gaza war of extermination and starvation and their attention may shift to other places such as Lebanon.
Iran’s Future
In the current war, Israel has destroyed infrastructure and nuclear facilities after assassinating most of the top-tier military leaders and nuclear scientists.
This has turned back the clock for Iran after it was believed by Israel and some Gulf states to be on the verge of acquiring a nuclear bomb.
Now, Israel remains the only nuclear power capable of shaping the new Middle East through force and coercion — backed by Trump and his administration, in which the ultra-Zionist right dominates most regional files.
Gradually, the outlines of the political and security bill for this unprecedented escalation are becoming clearer.
Can Israel bear the cost of gambling in a region that has been reeling from wars and turmoil for 75 years? And will Trump — who opposes Israel’s desire to drag the United States into war — succeed in signing an agreement that meets both Israeli and American requirements?
