-Analysis-
PARIS — Even between the fiercest adversaries, war can be choreographed. It’s not about aesthetics, of course, but about the rules of engagement, the political signal one combatant sends to the other.
When Iran informed Qatar, and therefore the Americans, in advance that the the giant Al Udeid base near Doha would be targeted by missile strikes, the signal was sent. The goal wasn’t to destroy the base or kill its occupants — a few missiles on one of the most heavily protected facilities wouldn’t do the trick. Instead, the goal was to send a political message that Iran wasn’t seeking escalation with the Americans.
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The Iranian regime could not allow the unprecedented bombing of its nuclear sites by U.S. aircraft to go unanswered, for that would be a true humiliation. But it also knew that was no match for an open war with the United States. It has effectively conceded its defeat, but has ensured the regime’s survival.
Donald Trump received this message well, and, in a reversal of his own, immediately drew the necessary conclusions by decreeing the end of this 12-day war. He took everyone by surprise: his own collaborators as well as Israel — which was ready to fight to the end, and was continuing missile attacks until the announcement late Monday night.
Early Tuesday, the ceasefire appeared fragile after Israel accused Iran of firing missiles, vowing to target Tehran with new strikes. Still, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly confirmed that Israel has agreed to the terms of the truce. The coming hours are crucial to seeing if the ceasefire holds.
Trump’s boast
Right now, all of this seems to suit Trump politically: he was careful to present Sunday’s bombing as a single act, not the start of a war. A portion of his voters is already very upset by this military operation, and Trump risked losing them by escalating the situation, after his numerous prior declarations that he wanted to end, not start, wars. It would have been a different story if there had been American casualties in the Iranian missile attacks last night.
There is a precedent: in 2019, during Trump’s first term, Iran shot down a $130 million American drone. A U.S. retaliation against Iranian bases had been planned, but Donald Trump canceled it. He then explained that the drone was unmanned, so there were no casualties, and the retaliation would have caused dozens of deaths.
The same logic is at work today and it allows him to emerge from the sequence stronger.
Trump will be able to boast endlessly about having used the greatest possible force against Iran, unlike his predecessors, and about having been fair and magnanimous in the aftermath of the confrontation. The political benefit is obvious.
Netanyahu caught off guard
In the process, he’s pulling the rug out from under Benjamin Netanyahu’s feet. The Israeli Prime Minister wasn’t on the same page: Monday, he’d increased his bombings and even broadened his targets in Iran, always prompting the same questions as to his motivations: nuclear power, or regime change?
Israel would have liked to go all the way.
There’s no doubt that Israel would prefer to go all the way, even if it will have to be content with rolling back without having completely destroyed Iran’s nuclear program.
Beyond that, the situation of the past 48 hours seems to confirm that it is now Donald Trump who decides on peace and war in the world. While this is certainly not good news for a stable world order, at this point we can be pleased if this particular war actually ends so quickly.
