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PARIS — After the Israeli and American strikes in Iran two months ago, everybody wondered what had become of the 450 kilograms, or 990 pounds, of enriched uranium the country possessed. The mystery remains unsolved. And it now lies at the heart of a diplomatic showdown that further adds to global chaos.
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This enriched uranium is thought to be hidden underground, and therefore was not destroyed by the Israeli and American bombs. According to an expert, all Iran would need today is to move to a small-scale operation in a discreet facility, to complete the enrichment process and produce the material for nearly a dozen nuclear warheads.
Clearly, the bombings have delayed but not “killed” Iran’s nuclear program.
Impossible to negotiate
For decades, the world has tried to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons not only through negotiations, but also, as we have seen, through military means. Thursday marked a new stage in the rift between the West and Iran: The three European signatories of the 2015 agreement — France, Germany and the United Kingdom — triggered at the UN Security Council a countdown that, within 30 days, could lead to the reimposition of severe sanctions on Tehran. This is not just another episode in a long-running saga.
The 2015 agreement had been greeted with cheers by the Iranian population, who believed it would finally put an end to economic sanctions. That was under U.S. President Barack Obama. But in 2018, President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the deal, arguably the most consequential mistake of his first term. Since then, it has been impossible to resume meaningful negotiations.
Otherwise, sanctions will be automatically reimposed and will be virtually impossible to lift unless there is an unlikely consensus among the major powers. Iran is therefore at a crossroads.
The different international context
Back then, Russia and China were involved alongside the Americans and Europeans in the agreement that “froze” Iran’s nuclear program. Today, Iran is supplying combat drones to Russia and selling much of its oil to China. The situation in Washington has also changed dramatically. Trump is not Obama.
Whereas the Iranian issue used to be regional, it is now part of a world in crisis and embroiled in multiple wars. Moscow and Beijing have a very different agenda than in 2015: breaking up with the West.
The Iranian president will be in Beijing next week, along with Russian President Vladimir Putin, for the commemorations of the end of World War II in China, an opportunity for a true summit of the non-Western world. In Paris, officials are already expecting to see a “war of narratives” emerge, with Iran portrayed as the victim, facing Israel, which itself possesses nuclear weapons.
Moscow and Beijing may not necessarily have an interest in seeing a nuclear-armed Iran, but the issue has become one of the pawns on the vast global chessboard; a pawn that happens to contain 990 pounds of enriched uranium.
