ROME — Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States has pursued a strategy in the Middle East of three fundamental objectives: control of energy resources, ensuring Israel’s security and superiority, and containment of any other independent power in the region, primarily the Islamic regime of Iran. The war in Iraq, interventions in Syria and Libya, ambivalent relations with Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf countries, and unconditional support for Israel, have all been expressions of Washington’s architecture of domination.
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In recent years, however, the legitimacy of America’s global leadership has significantly eroded. This has been the consequence of the failures in Afghanistan and Iraq, the inability to manage the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and deepening squabbles with European allies. Into this vacuum, China has attempted to step in with a patient and economic-driven strategy.
Nevertheless, the American decline in the region remains relative, as Washington still retains powerful tools: the dollar, military strength, worldwide strategic alliances, and, above all, Israel.
For decades, Israel has perceived itself as the victim of a hostile and unstable region. But we are now witnessing its attempts to redefine its role as an economic, technological, and military power. Its lightning victory in June’s 12-day war aimed against Iran’s nuclear facilities shocked the world. The operation not only decimated Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, but also established Israel as the unchallenged military force in the region.
The strategic India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) project has transformed Israel into a key hub between East and West. Supported by Washington, Riyadh, New Delhi, and the European Union, the Jewish state today emerges as a central link in the new economic chain that marginalizes rivals like Turkey, Iran, and even Russia.
While Saudi Arabia faces an internal transition and Turkey struggles with economic and political crises, Israel represents the only regional power capable of combining relative political stability, technological innovation, and military deterrence. Yet this success comes at a price: Israel is now entering a phase of structural competition with other “potential future” regional powers, particularly Iran.
Destabilizing actor
For more than four decades, Iran has been led by an ideological and revolutionary regime that has transformed the country into a destabilizing actor in the region. Through a network of proxy militias, from funding Hezbollah and the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, to its ambition to acquire nuclear weapons, the Islamic regime has become a threat to Israeli security and an obstacle to the Western-led order.
Iran has all the credentials to emerge as a regional power.
Yet economic and political isolation has condemned the Iranian people to poverty, repression, and despair. Following the destruction of its nuclear infrastructure and the lack of concrete support from China and Russia, the Tehran regime today is weaker than ever, opening a historic opportunity for the Iranian people to embark on the path to freedom. But the path will not be easy.
An inevitable competition
If Iran ever frees itself from theocratic rule, it will only be natural for its people to attempt to regain the nation’s historic role in the region. With a millennia-old civilization, immense natural resources, an enviable geostrategic position, and an educated and dynamic population, Iran has all the credentials to emerge as a regional power. But the path to power will not be linear.
The Iranian democratic opposition, in all its facets, must understand that the future world will be dominated by competition. If a free Iran wants to emerge as a power, it will inevitably enter into direct competition with Israel — a nation that, thanks to the full support of the United States, high technology, and intelligent economic strategies, aims to consolidate its place as the singular unchallenged regional power.
Israel is not content with military and economic superiority: it also wants to neutralize any potential rival, notably Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. Future Iranian leaders must therefore avoid naiveté: the nation’s success and freedom requires vision, political will and unity to resist any form of hegemony.
The future competition between Iran and Israel will not be solely military. It will be a struggle for innovation, regional influence, strategic diplomacy, and control of narratives. Israel is transforming itself into the economic engine of the Middle East, with projects like IMEC and its role in digital technology. If Iran wants to compete, it will need to embark on an industrial and technological revolution, liberalize its universities, globalize its economy, and base its foreign policy on pragmatic, not ideological, foundations.
Israel currently has the upper hand, but the future depends on the will of the people.
Furthermore, Iran will need to build a network of cultural, economic, and security alliances with Central Asia, the Caucasus, India, and some Arab countries. If it can present itself as an equal partner, rather than a threat or subordinate, it will be able to play a leading role at the table of the great powers. And dialogue with Israel will no longer be a sign of weakness, but of national confidence.
Israel currently has the upper hand, but the future depends on the will of the people. The competition between Iran and Israel can transform into a driving force for progress, provided Iran is free, independent, and united. No fate is irreversible if the people choose not to surrender.
China’s role
In this changing context, China is proposing an alternative that is far removed from a military logic. With the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing is focusing on infrastructure, economic and technological connections rather than military alliances. This approach has allowed it to simultaneously maintain balanced relations with Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.
The recent war between Israel and Iran demonstrated that China is still unwilling to risk a direct confrontation with Washington or Tel Aviv to defend anti-Western allies like Tehran. Even in the emerging multipolar order, Israel enjoys a privileged position in the eyes of all the main geopolitical powers.
A liberated Iran will be able to actively contribute to the construction of a more just order.
In a world where Israel is an economic and military power, supported by the United States, with a China pursuing active neutrality and Arab countries in the process of redefining themselves, post-Islamic Iran will have to answer a crucial question:
How does it expect to exercise a strategic role in the new global order? The answer will depend on collective will, the quality of political leadership, and the ability to clearly define one’s national interests.
Three factors will be decisive: First, a rebirth of national identity built on internal cohesion and democracy. Second is to build smart, multilateral alliances, forging ties with Europe, India, Central Asia, and the Arab world, based on mutual respect and economic cooperation. And finally, the ability to recalibrate relations with Israel and the United States, based on diplomacy, dignity, and national interest.
Chaos or renaissance?
America’s grand strategy continues to be based on dominance through military alliances and regional partners like the Israelis. Thanks to the IMEC, Israel has become an intercontinental economic hub. But this success, if built on the exclusion or weakening of other regional players like Iran, could generate chronic instability.
A liberated Iran, if it seizes this historic opportunity, will be able not only to ensure its own survival, but also to actively contribute to the construction of a more just order, one in which no people is subject to domination and no power is absolute.
This mission, though arduous, is possible: provided that faith in freedom, national identity, and collective will guide the path.
