ROME — Donald Trump wanted to pull the U.S. out of the Middle East’s “forever wars.” As of this weekend, he became the president who started the very war his eight predecessors — from Jimmy Carter to Joe Biden, and even himself in his first term — had consistently avoided: a direct conflict with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
For the latest news & views from every corner of the world, Worldcrunch Today is the only truly international newsletter. Sign up here.
Since its theocratic regime was born in 1979 with an anti-U.S. and anti-Israel manifesto — put swiftly into action with the hostage crisis at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran — the relationship has only deteriorated. And yet, no American president ever opted for a direct military clash with Iran. Not even during George W. Bush’s neo-con crusade to “remake” the Middle East.
So, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not wrong when he claims — with no small amount of self-interest, considering Trump followed the Jerusalem-written playbook to the letter — that Trump will go down in history for this intervention. Not as the president who promised his voters “no more wars,” and not as the Nobel Peace Prize winner who could match Obama’s legacy. But as the president who made a decisive turn in U.S. foreign policy, shifting balances across the region and beyond.
What those consequences will be is still uncertain. The fingerprints of this military strike point in four clear directions: diplomacy downgraded to pressure tactics; a strategic blend of timing and opportunism; disregard for European and Western allies; and a tacit understanding with Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
For Trump, getting a “deal” remains the operative doctrine. He’s always open to negotiate — almost always.
But to tilt the playing field in his favor, he’s willing to use every tool outside the negotiation room: political, economic, and military — threatened or deployed without hesitation.
Same playbook
When conditions allow, he’ll raise the bar for compromise; when needed, he’ll quietly lower it. That’s the playbook we should brace for — not only on Iran, but also on trade talks with both the EU and China. Trump’s original ask to Iran was relatively focused: stop enriching uranium.
Perhaps an agreement was near, as he claimed. Perhaps not, and Tehran was dragging its feet. Either way, the moment Israel began its bombing campaign, Trump raised the stakes: dismantle the nuclear program entirely — stopping it was no longer enough.
What now for the Middle East, where just a month ago Trump promised no more war and prosperity for all? He’s now fully embraced the Israeli doctrine: first eliminate the Iranian problem, then restart regional cooperation — with Iran chastened and diminished.
The Gulf states are now hedging their bets.
The Arab Gulf states, which once welcomed him with open arms — and open wallets — are now hedging their bets. They’re offering only cautious solidarity to Iran, nervous about fallout for shipping lanes, oil, and gas. They’re crossing their fingers that Trump’s “peace through strength” equation will play out quickly. They never wanted a nuclear Iran, but they also know that neither the U.S. nor Israel has a real plan for what comes next.
Worldcrunch 🗞 Extra!
Know more • A day after the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded that the “unjustified” attack was pushing the world towards great danger. During a meeting Monday with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in the Kremlin, Putin said that he wanted to speak about ways to calm the crisis, promising to try to help the Iranian people, though he didn’t clarify how.
Iranian sources told Reuters that Tehran has not been impressed with Russia’s support so far, and that the country wants Putin to do more to back it against Israel and the U.S. The news agency reports that the Russian leader has shown little appetite for a direct confrontation with the U.S. over Iran, as his U.S. counterpart is seeking to repair ties with Russia. — Anne-Sophie Goninet (read more about the Worldcrunch method here)
A 3,000-year history
Iran has been a regional heavyweight for 3,000 years. If the regime survives, expect revenge. If it falls, the question becomes: what — or who — takes its place? The Gulf monarchies and Turkey have no appetite for instability or unexpected pro-democracy “springs.”
The bombing of Iran’s three key nuclear sites — Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan — blindsided America’s European and Western partners. Trump left the G7 summit in Kananaskis, Canada in a rush — for an “emergency” that materialized five days later — after signing a joint declaration urging de-escalation. Then he did the exact opposite.
Just three days ago, the E3 countries (Germany, the UK and France), along with the EU, met with Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva. He was still open to negotiations. The Europeans had crafted a diplomatic channel to bring Tehran back to the table.
Trump shut that door with a blunt “no Europe” — echoing his stance on Ukraine. Not the most encouraging signal ahead of Tuesday’s NATO summit. And if he wants, Trump may not even bother showing up: “We’re at war, I don’t have time.”
Strategic friend
But he’ll likely find time to talk to Vladimir Putin, who’s hosting Araghchi in Moscow on Monday. Iran sees Russia as a “strategic friend.” Araghchi can expect reassuring words in Moscow.
In New York, meanwhile, Russia and China will raise hell at the UN Security Council to condemn the U.S. and Israel — but to no effect. An American veto is guaranteed, with probable backing from Britain and France.
What really matters now are the direct and indirect U.S.-Russia contacts.
More than the UN theatrics, what really matters now are the direct and indirect U.S.-Russia contacts. Take, for example, the release of Belarusian opposition prisoners following the U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg’s trip to Minsk and his warm embrace of the ever-resilient Alexander Lukashenko. It’s part of Washington’s slow-motion diplomatic pivot toward the Kremlin — sometimes through its allies.
If Trump can turn a blind eye to Kyiv, Putin is only too happy to look away from Tehran. “A good trade, since all of Ukraine is ours (meaning Russia’s),” Putin just said in St. Petersburg. U.S. bunker-busting bombs over Isfahan and Fordo are, in this view, a small price to pay — with plenty of apologies to Araghchi.
