Ghosts Of Franco And Gorbachev In Iran’s Last Chance For Regime Change From Within

-Analysis-

Iran is a country of 90 million people, bordered by Iraq and Turkey to the west, the Gulf monarchies to the south, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to the north, and Afghanistan and Pakistan to the east. Rich in oil and home to multiple ethnic and religious minorities, Iran is surrounded on all sides by conflict zones, active wars and Sunni states that have always competed with this cradle of Shiism.

The ancient Persia, against which Muhammad united the Arabian Peninsula under the new faith of Islam, has now become a ticking time bomb. The recent bombing campaigns of Iran by both Israel and the U.S. have raised much debate whether the end goal should be regime change.

There are good reasons to fear that the collapse of its regime could trigger powerful internal shocks that would reverberate across the entire region. The danger remains enormous, and for Iranians, the only way to avert it would be to manage a political transition from the dying theocracy to a free, democratic rule that so many have sought for decades.

That is what happened in Spain between the end of Franco’s rule and the beginning of democracy. Of course, the Europe of that time had little in common with today’s Middle East. Spain was at peace, while Iran is not.

Still, separated by 50 years, Iranians today have something in common with Spaniards of that era: the strength found within the dictatorship itself. As in Spain, a group has emerged within the system that breaks with the prevailing orthodoxy. These are reformers among the ruling class hoping for concrete change, or simply lucid enough to recognize the need for it. In Spain, most of them were technocrats trained in the United States or in European capitals.

In Iran, however, these men, and women too, once believed in the Islamic revolution. Some defended it so strongly that they even participated in mass repression. But now, they can no longer tolerate the regime’s corruption, blindness, and reckless regional ambitions. Many have quietly expressed dissent in parliament, in the press, in cultural circles, or even within the highest levels of the government. Others broke with the theocracy altogether and declared themselves reformers, running for positions like mayor, member of parliament, or president.

Those whose candidacies were not blocked by the religious authorities soon became internal opponents, marginalized and politically paralyzed like Mohammad Khatami, the reformist elected president in 1997 and 2002, or placed under house arrest like Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who ran in the 2009 presidential election against the ultra-conservative incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in an election widely seen as rigged.

Indeed, there are multiple battalions of reformist officials in Iran, whether open or discreet. Their number fluctuates depending on the administration, but they are even present in the clergy.

Iran today closely resembles the Soviet Union on the eve of Mikhail Gorbachev’s perestroika, and it is conceivable that these individuals could one day step into the role that normally belongs to organized opposition forces, which no longer exist in Iran.

In this country, once so deeply politicized, grassroots parties and political movements have been wiped out by arrests, executions, and mass killings carried out by the ruthless theocracy. If we set aside the reformers who have broken with the regime, no forces are currently ready to take over, but that does not mean Iran is without opposition.

Each time, the regime has managed to regain control, cracking down harder with every new wave of protest.

Artists, lawyers, and writers: Iran has no shortage of figures admired for the courage with which they have defied the mullahs. In the debates of the future, these dissidents will carry weight. Moreover, their decades-long resistance against the Islamic Republic has given rise to many fighters for freedom. The oldest, now in their fifties, were first mobilized during the campaigns to elect and re-elect Khatami. The youngest flooded the streets in 2022 after the killing of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini by regime militiamen for not wearing her veil properly. The “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement has been growing ever since. Even before that, there was the “Green Revolution” of 2009, with massive demonstrations against the fraudulent re-election of Ahmadinejad.

Each time, the regime has managed to regain control, cracking down harder with every new wave of protest. Just last year, the mullahs ordered more than 500 executions. This constant clash between the real country and the legal state has made Iran a paradox like no other. While the dictatorship is cruel and the republic’s institutions are completely under the thumb of religious authority represented by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, nowhere else in the world will you find so many citizens with this level of political experience.

Iran is the country of politically literate citizens par excellence. To prevent chaos that could quickly turn bloody, it would be enough for the most popular reformers and dissidents to come together and call for a peaceful transition. That would open the door to building a new political framework and organizing free elections. But time is running out.