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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Jordan Is Spooked By Trump’s Return — And What It Means For The Whole Middle East

In his first term, Donald Trump tried to undermine the strategy that Jordan had bet on for more than two decades, to protect itself from the risk of transferring the Palestinians from the occupied West Bank to Jordan. What will a second Trump term mean for the country?

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics

Tehran Says It’s Not Afraid Of Trump — It Should Be

Iranian officials insist another Trump presidency could never change its policies — including fighting Israel where it can. But given the first Trump administration, Tehran should expect hard times ahead.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics special series Trump And The World

Why Trump’s Victory May Put Warming Iran-Egypt Relations On Ice

Relations between Egypt and Iran have been growing closer. But the return of Donald Trump to the White House could be a setback for the rapprochement, given that Iran is among his top enemies.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War Russia-Ukraine War special series Trump And The World War in Ukraine

Trump’s Win Shakes Global Conflicts: Zelensky On Guard, Netanyahu Gains Ground

The election of Donald Trump has begun affecting global dynamics. In Ukraine, Zelensky fears losing U.S. support and has warned Europe against “suicidal” concessions to Russia. In Israel, Netanyahu stands as the main beneficiary, as Trump’s victory grants him the freedom to pursue his objectives unfettered.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics special series

For Beijing, Trump May Be The Lesser Of Two Evils

Republicans and Democrats agree on just one thing: being tough with China. That’s why Chinese leaders are not expressing a preference in the U.S. presidential election. Yet some in Beijing are leaning toward Donald Trump and what they see as his penchant for “pragmatism” and “deals” between China and the United States.

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Eyes on the U.S. Ideas

The U.S. Election Result That Putin Is Truly Hoping For: A Tie

With the U.S. elections on the brink, and polls extra tight in swing states, the Kremlin is lapping it up. Rather than outwardly pulling for a Trump victory, however, Wacław Radziwinowicz argues that Moscow is above all, hoping for the high level of chaos that would come with a hung election.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Qassem’s Dilemma: Can The New Hezbollah Chief Learn To Lead Without Getting Killed?

The legacy of Hassan Nasrallah will weigh heavily on Naim Qassem, who was named this week as new secretary general of Hezbollah. Can the less charismatic Qassem win the hearts of his followers?

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Ideas Israel-Palestine War

Egypt-Israel: How The Camp David “Betrayal” Of Palestine Looms Larger Than Ever

In Egypt, public support for a Palestinian homeland is deeply felt but constrained by the government that has had 40 years of diplomatic relations with Israel. Will the bloody war just across the border in Gaza change something?

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

As North Korean Troops Join The Russian Front Line, Keep An Eye On China

With tens of thousands North Korean troops confirmed to be moving toward the Russia-Ukraine front line, to fight on Moscow’s side in Ukraine, the two big questions are: What is Kim Jong-un trying to achieve? And more importantly, how does China fit into this picture?

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Geopolitics

Putin v. Europe: The Fight Gets Dirty In Moldova And Georgia

In Moldova, as in Georgia, pro-Russian forces are trying to prevent a move towards Europe. Sunday’s referendum on EU membership in Moldova was won by the pro-Europeans by a very narrow margin, and the government is talking of Russian interference.

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Future Russia-Ukraine War

Blocking Discord? Comrade Musk? The Paradox Of Russian Reliance On Western Technology

Russia’s Roskomnadzor agency blocked the Discord messaging application earlier this month, and thus disrupted one of the Russian military’s well-established communication systems. It’s a reminder of the Kremlin’s need for Western technology to wage its war against Ukraine.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

After Sinwar’s Death, Netanyahu Can Do One Of Two Things With His Victory

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, and above all ‘mastermind’ of October 7, is dead. Washington and Paris are calling on Israel to seize this opportunity to put an end to the war, but Netanyahu may choose to cash in another dividend.

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Israel-Palestine War

Sinwar Is Dead: How Palestinians Viewed The Mercurial Hamas Leader

The Israeli military says Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader, has been killed in Gaza. The strike is a major victory for Israel, closing a chapter in recent Palestinian history in which Sinwar rose to the top of Hamas, and bet everything on the Oct. 7 attack, which made him more divisive than ever among the people of Gaza.

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Israel-Palestine War

Salafi Islamists And Gulf Leaders Agree: Iran Is More Dangerous Than Israel

The Salafis, along with Gulf States like Saudi Arabia, consider the Shias as a greater threat to Islam than Zionism.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Israel’s “Revenge Attack” On Iran Is Coming — But It May Be Mostly A Decoy

Israel is keeping the Tehran regime and outside observers guessing on the scope and timing of its threatened strikes on Iranian territory. Some say it is seeking to win itself time to “finish up” in Lebanon and Gaza, others say a massive attack on Iran could help reorder the whole region.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Arafat To Nasrallah: The 1982 Lebanon History Lesson That Israel Forgot Again

Israel is on the hunt in Lebanon one more time, with apparent early successes. But it has again ignored the fact that something always rises from the ashes.

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Geopolitics

Why North Korea’s Latest Threats Are More Dangerous Than Ever

Tensions have suddenly escalated after North Korea accused South Korea of sending drones over its capital. Threats from Pyongyang are common, but amid an uncertain international context, experts are taking these latest ones more seriously.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

A “Biblical” War: Why Israeli Leaders Are Ready To Shed The Nation’s Blood

Israel’s war on Gaza has turned into a bloodbath, as ultimately demanded by the country’s ultra-religious rulers to remain in power as long as possible.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Why Nobody Can Guess Anymore How Far Netanyahu Will Go

Initially presented as “limited,” Israeli operations have escalated sharply in Lebanon, and the Israeli Prime Minister has called on the country’s citizens to rise up against Hezbollah. What is Benjamin Netanyahu’s aim in this war?

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Zelensky Wants More Weapons — But Is Ready For A Softer Definition Of “Victory”

The Ukrainian president has begun a tour of Europe to present his “victory plan,” designed to reverse the balance of power with Russia before negotiating. It’s almost like asking for war and peace at the same time.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Iran’s Other Problem: Hezbollah Rank And File Are Turning Against It

Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei vowed on Friday that the country’s regional allies would “not back down” against Israel. Yet neither criticism of Tehran has been growing among Hezbollah supporters since the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah.

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Geopolitics

Israel’s “Trial-By-Fire” Tactics In Lebanon May Mean A Far Longer War Than Promised

Israel doesn’t know how far it will push into Lebanon, a great deal will depend on how much resistance they face. All of it adds up to a tragedy-in-the-making for the people of Lebanon.

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Geopolitics

By Firing Missiles At Israel, Iran May Have Just Doomed Its Own Nuclear Program

Iran decided on Tuesday to respond to the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, at the risk of Israel’s merciless retaliation. At stake is Iran’s nuclear program, which Israel has long wanted to destroy.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Yes, Nasrallah Hit Makes The U.S. And Iran Look Weak — But This Won’t End Well For Israel

As Israel celebrates the death of Hezbollah’s leader, Washington and Tehran both suddenly seem powerless, looking like spectators of an unraveling tragedy that is beyond their control. Yet, given its demographics and geography, Israel desperately needs allies.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

How Far Will Netanyahu Go?

The Israeli Prime Minister has scored a major victory with the elimination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. But Netanyahu is showing no signs of relenting, continuing the bombing of Lebanon, and also striking Yemen. All with Iran as the ultimate target. Yet can force alone guarantee Israel’s security?

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Israel-Palestine War

How Hezbollah Shuts Down Debate In Lebanon

The call in Lebanon to “postpone politics” is driven by a narration of the war as a religious, and not a political, event: that’s the root of Hezbollah’s ideology.

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Russia-Ukraine War

What If Putin’s Nuclear Saber-Rattling Was Just A Big Bluff?

What should we make of Vladimir Putin’s “new rules” regarding what constitutes a nuclear aggressor and how Moscow might retaliate? A closer look, especially after another recent failed launch test of the Sarmat missile system, shows the Soviet legacy increasingly appears to be a rusting shell of its former self.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics

Joe Biden’s Diplomatic Legacy: The Good, The Bad, The Never-Had-A-Chance

Joe Biden delivered his final speech to the UN General Assembly, in the form of a message from a wise old man who has seen dark times before. But while he has re-established a predictable presidency, he still appears hesitant on Ukraine and the Middle East, which tarnishes his record.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Haifa And Beyond — How Hezbollah Will Respond To Israel’s Onslaught

We have entered a new phase of confrontation. The war on the northern front has become a reality and not just threats. Hezbollah may be reeling after the pagers attack and the bombings in southern Lebanon, but it is also set to go on the offensive, taking aim at Israel’s northern coastal city of Haifa.

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Geopolitics

“Gaza Method” For Lebanon? Israel Shows It Still Doesn’t Care What The World Thinks

After the pagers explosions and the elimination of several key Hezbollah leaders, Israel massively bombed southern Lebanon, killing more than 550 people. Proportionality is over. Escalation has begun. The civilian death toll may start to pile up just like in Gaza.

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Geopolitics

Why The U.S. Can’t Stop Israel From Escalating In Lebanon

The upsurge in violence between Israel and Hezbollah in recent days carries the risk of regional conflagration that the United States does not want. But once again, for almost a year now, the Americans have been unable to get their Israeli ally to listen.

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Economy Geopolitics

Mexican Judicial Reform: Boost To Democracy Or Gift To Drug Cartels?

Mexico’s ruling party has reformed the constitution, forcing judges to run for office, supposedly to make them accountable to the people. But given the country’s history and singular problem with crime, it may turn them instead into ordinary politicians vulnerable to bribery and mob terrorism.

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Geopolitics

An Israel-Hezbollah War Solves Nothing — And Nobody Can Stop It

After a series of Hezbollah pager and walkie-talkie explosions attributed to Israel, Hassan Nasrallah, the movement’s leader, promised to retaliate, while Israel stepped up its air raids. But neither side has a strategic vision beyond the battlefield.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Israel’s Attacks Against Hezbollah Come Amid Signs It Will Launch Full-Scale War In Lebanon

Unprecedented attacks via pagers and walkie-talkies carried by Hezbollah members comes amid a growing consensus in Israel in favor of launching a war across the border into Lebanon. Meanwhile, the U.S. may have given its assent and the Lebanese government appears unable to intervene, with Hezbollah holding all the cards on this side of the border.

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Geopolitics

The Muslim Brotherhood Is Allowed Back In Jordan’s Parliament: A Blunt Message To Israel

The Muslim Brotherhood is heading back into Jordanian politics, 30 years after being excluded following the 1994 peace deal with Israel. It’s a post-Oct. 7 sign from Amman about the specter of masses of Palestinians flooding into Jordan from Gaza and the West Bank is scary enough to play ball with the Islamist Brotherhood.

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Geopolitics Ideas Israel-Palestine War

OnlyFans And IDF: The Evolution Of Pornography And The Modern Soldier

The porn industry and amateur and professional adult content plays a role in the Israeli war on Gaza. Some pornographic companies did not only provide support to Israel, but adult content also contributed to drawing a violative imagination about Israeli soldiers and their relationship with the battlefield and the Gazan victims. It is part of a long history linking pornography and war.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

So Trump Doesn’t Care If Ukraine Wins The War — But What Does Winning Even Mean?

The first presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump was an important reminder that the American election will help determine the fate of Ukraine. It did not take long to see which option was better. So much so the moderators had to ask Trump “Do you want Ukraine to win?”

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Geopolitics

Iran Is Weak Right Now — The West Should Exploit That Weakness

With an economy in ruins and facing an unstable foreign environment, the Islamic Republic of Iran has signaled, with the return of seasoned diplomats to top positions, that it wants to talk again. But, as always, those who call the shots in Tehran are loath to negotiate anything crucial with the West.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Putin In Mongolia, Or The Death Of International Justice? Not Just Yet

Mongolia is a signatory to the International Criminal Court treaty and should have arrested Vladimir Putin on his arrival in the capital yesterday. Of course, it didn’t — nobody believed it would. But for international affairs specialist Pierre Haski, this is only a setback for international justice.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Theater Of War: How Israel And Hezbollah Orchestrate Attacks That Never Cross The Line

Residents of southern Lebanon believe that their hometowns will remain an open arena for a long-term war between Israel and Hezbollah, even if this has only happened so far in a way that allows both sides to stop short of declaring an all-out war.

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