-Analysis-
PARIS — Ismaël Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas abroad, assassinated in Tehran on July 31; Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, killed in Beirut on September 27; and now Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas and above all the “mastermind” of the October 7 massacre, was killed Thursday in a firefight in Gaza.
For Benjamin Netanyahu, the triple strike is a military success that is total, and offers him sweet revenge on all those who have scorned him for the past year.
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Sinwar was the missing target in the Israeli hunt for the October 7 architects. Like the other two, he was not caught as a result of meticulous intelligence work: the Israeli trainee soldiers did not know that they were dealing with the Hamas leader when they came upon him in southern Gaza.
But whatever the circumstances, this is the ultimate victory that Netanyahu needed. It should stand clearly as a turning point in this major crisis, which began a year ago with the Hamas attack on southern Israel and has continued with a merciless war waged by the Jewish state in Gaza, and more recently in Lebanon.
Two options
The Israeli Prime Minister has two options: the first is the one recommended last night by Washington and Paris, to declare victory and negotiate an end to the conflict, recover the hostages and prepare for what comes next. This is the option of reason.
The second is to build on his current advantage, destroying every last Hamas tunnel, while pursuing the same strategy in Lebanon against Hezbollah, and preparing a strike against Iran. This is the option that could be described as ideological, i.e. dictated by the idea that has been much talked about since Israel’s success against Hezbollah: to create a “New Middle East’ free of Iranian influence.
It is not impossible that Netanyahu will choose the second option, even if he has spoken of the “beginning of the end’”of the war. If only because of the proximity of the U.S. election, on Nov. 5, and the possible victory of Donald Trump, which would leave the Israeli leader with a free hand.
Waiting for Nov. 5?
There is certainly a “Mission Accomplished”moment for Benjamin Netanyahu, in other words, like then U.S. President George W. Bush in 2003 after the fall of Saddam Hussein, the feeling that anything is possible.
Israel’s immense military success does not necessarily provide political answers.
We know what happened next in Iraq and Libya: the fall of the tyrant paved the way for chaos and worse: ISIS and Iranian influence in Iraq, regional destabilization in Libya.
For the past year, the main criticism leveled at Netanyahu in Israel, right up to the head of state, has been his lack of a plan for the Day After.
His continued rejection of a Palestinian state leaves him with no vision for post-war Gaza, ravaged and mourning tens of thousands of dead. This may allow Hamas to continue with new leaders, or give birth to something even worse than Hamas. As for the West Bank, his dream is to annex it, which Trump would allow him to do.
As we can see, Israel’s immense military success does not necessarily provide political answers. For the moment, Netanyahu and public opinion in Israel are savoring their revenge, the death of the man who has haunted them for the past year and more — the difficult questions will come later.
