Tehran Says It’s Not Afraid Of Trump — It Should Be

-Analysis-

Donald Trump’s recent victory in the U.S. presidential elections and imminent return to the White House constitutes a challenge and a matter of grave concern to Iran. Officials in Tehran have repeated over the years that it makes no difference to them who is U.S. president; Iran’s policies are not swayed by individuals. Yet those claims belie the political and economic realities Iran faced during the first Trump administration.

For now, a second Trump administration is expected to resume a policy of maximum pressure on Iran, with tougher sanctions and tighter restrictions curtailing not only the regime’s political and diplomatic options but also access to cash, needed, among other things, to pay for its repressive policies at home.

A brave face

Trump has also said several times that regime change is not in his program. But further economic and banking restrictions on the Iranian regime are bound to push the country’s economy deeper into crisis, which may produce another round of domestic protests following those of 2019-2020, and more recently the 2022 uprising after the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody.

Naturally Iranian officials and army figures are putting on a brave face when they say the U.S. president makes no difference. They are keen to convey an image of resilience in the face of the toughest of economic pressures. But those claims are directed at domestic opinion and the regime’s own forces.

The first Trump administration hampered the regime’s ability to suppress dissent.

Tehran knows that renewed restrictions will have specific results, namely on curtailing its ability to sell oil — or selling much less — and on an already battered currency. So it knows it is vulnerable to wide-ranging sanctions — especially if enforced, which is to be expected under a Republican administration.

The first Trump administration also hampered the regime’s ability to suppress dissent, as it had less money to spend on the means of repression. These include technology, domestic militias and police forces but also the regional fighters suspected to have been shipped into the country to help crush protests.

Propaganda based on delusion

Tehran has also sought to exploit Trump’s victory with publicity and posturing. Hossein Salami, head of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, said, for example, that the “resistance in Gaza,” managed to change the “United States’ warmongering administration,” meaning that the election results were influenced by the actions of Iran and Hamas Islamic Republic and Hamas — a good example of propaganda based on delusion.

Regimes with little popular backing need it, both to keep projecting a power image abroad and maintain their own morale at home.

Former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the election results showed that Americans had turned their back on the Biden administration’s policies, specifically its support for Israel. This, too, while parading as a rational analysis of the elections, is intended to suppress incipient fears of the hard times ahead.

Degrading the regime

For many Iran observers, a second Trump administration may make life harder for millions of Iranians in the short term, but aid social and political changes down the line.

Increased pressure on Iran will help degrade the regime, while fueling public anger and curbing the state’s repressive capabilities. Regime officials may feign indifference to another helping of Trump, but the reality is that the Democrats’ departure has weakened the regime and its survival prospects.

Trump and Israel likely share a bottom line.

In time, Trump may provide Iranians with another and better opportunity to challenge the regime. For now, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is enjoying a free hand to sever the regime’s tentacles in the region and pushing it toward regional isolation.

Whatever their views on the Iranian regime, Trump and Israel likely share a bottom line: revive the Abraham Accords, boost Israel’s nascent ties with Arab states, and end Tehran’s Middle Eastern adventures. The regime can hardly remain indifferent to that.