-Analysis-
CAIRO — The relationship between Egypt and Iran has unmistakably grown closer recently.
This latest push began three years ago when Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi met with Iran’s top diplomat at the time at an international conference in Baghdad in August 2021. And it reached a new stage last October, when Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Cairo, making him the first top Iranian diplomat to visit the Egyptian capital in more than a decade. His visit was followed by a meeting between el-Sisi and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia.
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Yet there are still some obstacles to restoring full diplomatic ties between the two regional powerhouses, some of which are international and others regional, in addition to Egyptian security concerns about attempts to spread the Shiite sect and support political Islam groups. The reelection of Donald Trump will further test their relations over the coming four years.
Hani Al-Aasar, director of the National Center for Studies, said that Iran is keen to normalize and develop its ties with Egypt “as part of its efforts to break the siege that Washington wants to impose on it.” American pressure remains one of the factors that may disrupt the path to full normal relations between Cairo and Tehran.
Pressure from the U.S.
Hussein Royran, professor of political science at the University of Tehran, said that Iran aims to establish high-level coordination with major powers in the region, particularly Egypt. He said that Iran has shown Egypt its seriousness in establishing good relations that take into account the interests of both parties, in an effort to ease Egyptian security concerns about Iranian interference in the internal affairs of Egypt and other countries in the region.
But the U.S. does not want any cooperation between powerhouses in the region, Royran said. While Iran is not tied to any kind of American pressure, “Cairo is required to respond to the extent of the impact of U.S. pressure.”
The question, Royran said, is about Egypt’s ability to manage its network of relations with Washington and the West, and maneuver to ensure that these relations are not affected by expanding its cooperation with Iran.
Mootaz Ahmadein Khalil, Egypt’s former representative to the UN, said the American veto on normalizing relations between the two countries “cannot be underestimated.” But there are areas of cooperation that can expand without American rejection, he said. Those include raising the level of diplomatic representation between the two countries to reach the exchange of ambassadors.
Conditions are favorable for the return of Egypt-Iran relations.
“We must not forget that Egypt has conveyed messages to and from Iran as a mediator during the recent period,” he said, adding that the U.S. won’t allow economic ties to develop and expand, unlike the diplomatic rapprochement.
Al-Aasar, the director of the National Center for Studies, said that conditions are favorable for the return of Egypt-Iran relations “in light of the current situation in the region and Washington’s need for reliable mediators to convey messages” in relation to Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
But that does not mean that Washington will accept a full normalization of relations between Cairo and Tehran, he said.
Trump’s reelection could be a setback for the Egyptian-Iranian rapprochement given that Iran is among his top enemies. Trump is likely to have a policy of maximum pressure, imposing sanctions on and isolating Iran.
Gulf is not a concern
Following the Saudi-Iranian deal to normalize ties in March 2023, Egyptian-Iranian consultations and communications reached the stage of presidential meetings. El-Sisi and the late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi met on the sidelines of the joint Arab-Islamic summit in Riyadh in November last year. This came after a long period of Egypt stating that “Gulf security is a red line.” The slogan was adopted by top Egyptian officials including el-Sisi.
Khalil ruled out any Gulf concerns, especially from Saudi Arabia, about the development of Egyptian-Iranian relations, saying “the matter no longer represents an obstacle for Egypt.”
Egypt could see economic benefits from restoring ties with Iran.
For his part, Al-Aasar said that “there are official Egyptian circles that saw that the time is right to restore or develop relations, especially since the Gulf countries, led by Saudi Arabia, have taken this path.”
Al-Aasar pointed out that Egypt could see economic benefits from restoring ties with Iran, including the oil industry and religious tourism given that Cairo can attract millions of Iranian tourists who want to visit shrines and mosques of ancestors of Prophet Mohammed.
“Iran, after consultations and exchanged messages, is ready to enter the Egyptian markets by establishing a factory to produce local cars, and establishing joint companies in the fields of textiles, maritime navigation and carpet trade, in addition to tourism exchange and cooperation in the fields of oil and gas,” said Mohammad Hossein Soltanifar, head of the Iranian Interests Section Office in Egypt.
