Israel’s “Trial-By-Fire” Tactics In Lebanon May Mean A Far Longer War Than Promised

-Analysis-

BEIRUT — The Israeli ground operation in southern Lebanon will not be limited, as the Israeli army claims — or as the U.S. administration is promising. Instead, a trial-by-fire operation will be conducted, on the basis of which the area and distance of the new occupation will be determined.

This is what we have seen in our many past experiences with Israeli ground operations, with perhaps the most prominent example in the invasion of 1982. At that time, the map of expansion began to expand as the invading army felt that the defenses of the Palestine Liberation Organization were collapsing. So we moved from the goal of reaching the Awali River (in southern Lebanon) to ultimately entering the capital, Beirut.

Today, Israel’s occupation army indicates in a statement that the operation will be focused and limited. But in another statement it recalled the Litani operation in 1978, in which the army reached the borders of the river and settled there until it withdrew a short distance and established what it called the “border strip” or “Free Lebanon” statelet.

Many indicators reinforce the belief that there is no fixed map for the ground invasion. That it is related to the size of the “difficulties” that the new invasion may face.

U.S. cover

The occupation’s appetite is now at its peak, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu feeling that the strikes he has directed at Hezbollah will open the doors for a ground invasion, the extent of which will be determined by the facts on the ground.

It also appears clear that the U.S. administration is covering up the Israeli army’s movement every step of the way. While it says that the operation is limited, it will return to “understand” the expansion of the operation, as it did when it “understood” the massacres committed by Israel in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Sidon and the south.

The advance towards the Litani River may fall within the scope of Washington’s definition of a “limited operation.”

Here, it must be noted that “Israeli military achievements” have always represented an attraction for the Americans to strengthen their relationship with Tel Aviv. This started with the 1967 war when Israel occupied lands in three Arab countries (Egypt, Syria and Jordan). That year was a turning point in the U.S. position towards Israel, which became Washington’s No. 1 ally in the Middle East.

Today, Netanyahu may dazzle the U.S. with the “effectiveness” of his army, so that it will turn a blind eye to further expansion.

Litani River borderline

There are no guarantees to limit the momentum of Israeli tanks other than the resistance they might face. This has been Israel’s practice in its invasions of Lebanon since 1978. The last experience in 2006 revealed that the “tank massacre” in Wadi al-Hujeir, in which Hezbollah fighters inflicted heavy losses on the Israeli army, was what stopped the ground advance at the time.

In its invasion today, Israel is betting that it has inflicted a major security defeat on Hezbollah, which will crack its field defenses and facilitate the invasion. On this basis, it has not set clear boundaries for its ground invasion.

What remains unknown so far are Hezbollah’s military capabilities

The difference is dozens of kilometers between Israel’s statements that the operation is “focused and limited” and its military spokesman indicating that the Litani River is the border of the fighting.

No clear map

Here, what remains unknown so far are Hezbollah’s military capabilities in that area. The blows that the party has received are primarily about security and morale.

It’s not clear to what extent Its military capabilities, especially south of the Litani region, were affected. There is the possibility that it has been severely broken, especially since Israel has managed to strike the communication networks between the front lines. Yet years of fortifications that its fighters have built on those lines should not be dismissed so quickly.

Israel has not drawn up a clear map for its invasion. What happens in the field is what will determine the size and area of the new occupation. And Washington has shown no reservations so far after any bloody step taken by Israel’s leadership.

This has all the makings of another tragedy, a war taking place in a country with a failed and corrupt state and an absent and paralyzed government that lacks the ability to move and mobilize resources and efforts to prevent it or protect its citizens.

Add to this the fact is that no single Arab country has felt the need to make any kind of move, and there are even those among them who can’t wait for our demise.

The nation of Lebanon is completely exposed.