Iran’s Other Problem: Hezbollah Rank And File Are Turning Against It

-Analysis-

BEIRUT — In a rare public address, in a sermon at Friday prayers in Tehran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei defended the country’s missile attack against Israel and vowed further action if necessary. He punctuated his address by saying Iran’s allies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, would “not back down” in their conflict with Israel.

Yet since Israel’s assassination last week of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, some of the widespread anger and grief among the Lebanese militants’ base is being directed at Iran. Indeed, the reaction in Lebanon may help explain the motivation for Khamenei’s surprise remarks.

For the past week, through personal videos shared on line and in other public forums, many Hezbollah backers have been saying that Iran did not stand by them in the war against Israel on behalf of the “Axis of Resistance” led by Iran. The phrases “Let Tehran burn,” and “Let the South (of Lebanon) remain” quickly spread across social media immediately after Nasrallah’s assassination on Sept. 27, along with Israel’s extensive attacks on Beirut’s southern suburbs and the displacement of its residents.

The phrases, shared openly by supporters of the Amal Movement and Hezbollah on their personal pages, was accompanied by posts mourning Nasrallah. Often, the posts suggested that he had been betrayed and abandoned on the battlefield, likening him to the Prophet Muhammad’s grandson, Hussein ibn Ali.

Some even compared Iran’s leadership to the people of Kufa, who had invited Hussein ibn Ali to the Battle of Karbala, assuring him of their support, only to leave him alone. Discussions also began among Hezbollah’s supporters regarding Iran’s role and its failure to support the party.

This is the first time public dissatisfaction with Iran has emerged so sharply among Hezbollah’s followers, with some expressing disappointment with the actions of their patron country, feeling they were “sold out” in the ongoing Iran-U.S. negotiations.

Missile diplomacy

This vocal criticism of Iran led Hezbollah’s media figures to attempt to control and counter it, ensuring it didn’t spread to all Hezbollah supporters. Some shared an October 2009 letter signed by Nasrallah recommending faith in the leadership of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Others accused critics of treason or of being influenced by Zionist propaganda, while some rejected this accusation, citing Nasrallah’s assassination.

Iran’s launch of more than 200 missiles toward Israel on Tuesday slightly eased the hearts of Hezbollah supporters in Lebanon, alleviating the feeling among many that Iran had abandoned them in recent days.

Iran’s response followed a period in which it appeared hesitant and weak.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard linked the missile barrage on Israel to retaliation for the assassinations of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and senior Revolutionary Guard commander Abbas Nilforoushan in Beirut’s southern suburbs in addition to that of Nasrallah.

Iran’s response followed a period in which it appeared hesitant and weak after Haniyeh’s assassination on its soil, and after the devastating blows dealt to Hezbollah in Lebanon and its inability to support them, which observers believed encouraged Israel to escalate to this extent.

Hezbollah supporters rejoiced at Iran’s strike against Israel, but that does not mean criticism of Iran has disappeared. That remains contingent on the days to come and could resurface if the situation in Lebanon worsens further and these supporters find themselves isolated again.

Shifting blame game

This is reinforced by the fact that Iran’s retaliation was not solely in response to Nasrallah’s assassination in a way that matched the massacres committed in the southern suburbs, which also claimed the lives of many Hezbollah leaders. Instead, Iran seemed to be settling a triple score at once, aiming to deter the enemy from striking its own territory after Israel showed signs of readiness to do so.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, following Nasrallah’s assassination, announced Israel’s intention to change the reality in the Middle East and expressed support for the Iranian people in a message directed at the Iranian regime. Reuters also reported shortly after the assassination that Khamenei had been moved to a safe location, indicating increasing fears of a potential assassination attempt against him.

So Iran retaliated after realizing that its efforts to prevent the flames from spreading to its territory might be what ultimately ignites them.

After Iran launched missiles at Israel, the situation shifted. Some people began to retract their previous criticism of Iran and urged others to delete their critical posts, saying they were no longer relevant. Others started redirecting the same criticisms originally leveled at Iran toward the U.S. and Israel, claiming that just as Iran was accused of selling out Hezbollah, the U.S. had sold out Israel.

Empty promises

In an interview with Daraj regarding the growing criticism of Iran’s perceived inaction in recent days, journalist Mustafa Fuhs said that the criticism might not stem from any real failure but from a public mood that expected more from a historical ally. He pointed out that statements made by Iranian officials during the war demoralized Hezbollah’s base, who felt their sacrifices were met only with meaningless rhetoric about discipline and strategic patience.

Fuhs expects that these feelings could escalate if Hezbollah faces another setback on the battlefield, noting that while people’s emotional loyalty drives their ideological commitment, in the end, they will demand tangible support. If Iran doesn’t stand with them in their time of need, the result will be sorrow, anger, and eventual separation.

The sense of betrayal is primarily among Hezbollah’s supporters and hasn’t reached the leadership.

Fuhs predicts that this reaction could grow to a point where neither Hezbollah nor the Iranians will be able to suppress it within the Shia community. He believes Iran hasn’t abandoned Hezbollah, but its policies have exposed the party, allowing Israel to see that Iran itself is vulnerable to U.S. pressure and that its ability to act is limited.

On the other hand, Carnegie Institute researcher Mohannad Hajj Ali argues that the sense of betrayal is primarily among Hezbollah’s supporters and hasn’t reached the leadership. He explains that the supporters expected Iran not to abandon them at this critical juncture.

Yet Hajj Ali also believes that this feeling of betrayal contradicts reality, given that Iranian officials, including key figures like Nilforoushan, died alongside Hezbollah leaders. He concludes that while Iran is a capable state, it, like Hezbollah, has suffered major breaches and will likely face an Israeli attack in the near future.