Israel’s “Revenge Attack” On Iran Is Coming — But It May Be Mostly A Decoy

Updated October 16, 2024 at 6:20 p.m.*

-Analysis-

As war engulfs Lebanon and threatens to spread across the Middle East, Israel has been making apocalyptic threats against the Islamic Republic of Iran, its nemesis and patron of the militias fighting Israel on its behalf.

The specter of massive strikes on Iranian territory in retaliation for the Tehran regime’s last barrage of missiles on Israel has all but mesmerized millions around the world, while those inside the country have been thrown into a state of acute anxiety. Reports this week say that Israel has assured the U.S. that it will not target Iran’s oil or nuclear facilities, focusing on “military” targets.

While that still leaves much uncertainty, sources quoted by CNN on Wednesday said that Israel’s plans to strike Iran are now ready.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has addressed Iranians directly, telling them they could be rid of a widely despised regime far sooner than they imagined, conjuring the prospect of the Islamic Republic’s collapse following an Israeli attack.

Israel’s defense minister has said it would in any case be painful, while Netanyahu’s predecessor, Naftali Bennett, has joined in lobbying Washington, trying to tell a skeptical Democratic administration that this is a unique opportunity to be rid of the mullahs in Tehran. A frustrated U.S. President Joe Biden has suggested he barely has any control of Netanyahu after Iran’s recent attack.

But is all this part of some theater meant to unnerve Tehran’s rulers? Do the protagonists want to push Iran into defensive mode, or are there really plans afoot for an almighty attack on Iranian territory?

It appears, on the back of subsequent investigations not widely reported, that Iran’s second barrage of missiles two weeks ago did reach several strategic sites and positions inside Israel, in spite of the fact that the vast majority of projectiles “missed” or were eliminated by Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system. Nobody was killed nor serious damage inflicted, but the stage was set and pretext given for a singularly punitive, if not edifying, response from Israel.

Netanyahu, his officials and coalition allies have managed with their insinuations to fix the world’s gaze and ears on Israel and its intentions. Is it about to change the geopolitical order in the Middle East?

All-out war or scare tactics?

Is Israel preparing itself for a multifaceted, hybrid or unconventional war? While well-versed and experienced by now in fighting Iran’s local affiliates in the so-called “Resistance” — Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad — the Iranian state presents a far bigger challenge.

It is a vast territory with a considerable population of some 90 million, so any action there requires precise strategic planning. For some observers, Israel’s vicious threats constitute tactical scaremongering, meant to undermine Iran’s resolve and military bluster. It may be intimidated for now into taking a more passive approach to regional fighting, giving Israel the time and opportunity to strengthen its positions and pursue operations in Lebanon and Gaza.

Israel may be biding its time before taking far-reaching measures.

Because Israel needs the Iranian regime to stay put for now, to avoid a proliferation of fronts while it proceeds with the gritty, and bloody, business of uprooting Hezbollah and Hamas beyond its frontiers.

It is hoping fear will at least momentarily paralyze Tehran, before Israel is at leisure again, as it were, to proceed with a possible and far bigger plan to reshape the region’s political and ideological configuration. Israel’s new regional order would include shrinking Tehran’s influence and shriveling the militant Islamism that has thrived since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. A combination of verbal threats and a refusal to react immediately suggest here that Israel may be biding its time before, possibly, taking far-reaching measures.

Regime change scenarios

Speculation over Israel’s intentions inevitably raises multiple questions: Can Israeli air strikes or military action bring down the Tehran regime? Does it seek regime change while avoiding confrontation with Iranian military forces?

Netanyahu is one of the very few world leaders to have publicly met with Iran’s exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, who recently reassured Iranians that the regime’s fall would not entail a power vacuum in the country.

Israel under Netanyahu is willing and able to use extreme force in pursuit of its goals

Has Israel envisaged a role for Iran’s opposition, and can they or the prince do anything to prevent a collapse of law and order in Iran?

These are of concern considering the fact that Israel cannot overlook the Iranian state’s present challenge in strategic and structural terms. Strikes are unlikely to topple the regime by themselves, without any type of popular mobilization or opposition role.

Less apologetic and defensive

For now, what we have on the ground, which the Tehran regime can see, is that Israel under Netanyahu is willing and able to use extreme force in pursuit of its goals. It is unlikely Tehran is taking the current threats lightly.

Beyond any punitive actions, Israel is working to consolidate and boost its regional position in a process that began with the Abraham Accords. It wants a far less apologetic and defensive presence for itself, and suspects — or knows — that conservative Arab states are barely supportive of the Islamic Republic’s revolutionary, disruptive and seditious agenda. These are its plans, in principle, but will it act?

Is the region facing a prolonged and bloody stalemate, or some momentous change akin to the “calamitous” revolution of 1979?

*Originally published October 14, 2024, this article was updated October 16, 2024 with new information about the timeline and targets of a retaliatory strike by Israel.