Israel’s Attacks Against Hezbollah Come Amid Signs It Will Launch Full-Scale War In Lebanon

Updated Sep. 19, 2024 at 12:25 a.m.*

-Analysis-

BEIRUT — The “all-out” war in southern Lebanon is no longer just a possibility — it’s on the verge of becoming a reality. Here’s why.

The latest factor are the unprecedented attacks on the personal pagers and walkie-talkies of Hezbollah members in Lebanon. Reuters reported that Israel’s Mossad spy agency planted explosives inside 5,000 pagers imported by the militant group months before Tuesday’s detonations. The operation saw thousands of pagers detonate across Lebanon, killing nine people and wounding some 2,800. Hezbollah vowed revenge Wednesday for the attack, which also injured Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon.

On Wednesday, a new series of similar attacks occurred in Beirut and southern Lebanon, with walkie-talkies carried by Hezbollah members detonated remotely, killing at least 20 and injuring 450.

The attacks appear to culminate growing signs that Israel is preparing for an all-out war against Hezbollah that risks involving all of Lebanon. It’s important to understand that by now it has become a consensus stance inside Israel in favor of launching a surge across the northern border.

UN Secretary General António Guterres warned of the “serious risk of a dramatic escalation” and called on all parties to “exercise maximum restraint”

“Obviously the logic of making all these devices explode is to do it as a pre-emptive strike before a major military operation,” he told reporters.

Israel announced Monday its plans to facilitate the return of the 60,000 civilians who had been evacuated from the north after Hezbollah begin firing missiles following the October 7 attack and the war it set off in Gaza. It is a clear sign from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that a new war aim is to destroy Hezbollah’s military infrastructure that has long threatened Israel.

What may have been decisive this month was the visit of the head of the U.S. Central Command, Michael Kurilla, to Israel and his inspection of the “northern front” — the border with Lebanon. Remember, the Lebanese government has no control of what is happening on its southern border! This is a fact known to everyone.

In the face of the rising Israeli threatening signs, there are no clear steps that Lebanon is able to take to deal with the possibility of escalation. Nevertheless, caretaker Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati summoned major countries’ ambassadors to Lebanon and briefed them about Israel’s threats. He did so despite his complete ignorance of the course the war could take.

Mikati, especially in light of the vacuum in the Lebanese presidency, has put the major powers before their responsibilities amid a potential Israeli aggression on Lebanon. It should be noted that Mikati could remain in office indefinitely. Hezbollah wants him, and Nabih Berri, the longstanding speaker of parliament, also wants him. He is not embarrassed to facilitate the duo’s mission of keeping Lebanon a mere international arena for other powers with no trace of a state, sovereignty, or law.

Mikati is indeed the embodiment of the vacuum that Hezbollah is filling, of the state that is disappearing and being erased. Only corruption indicates the state’s existence and its role in increasing the misery of its citizens.

Hezbollah’s promise

Perhaps the political polarization and paralysis that Lebanon is witnessing as a result of this equation is more severe than any we have ever experienced. In parallel with the mounting tensions, it was remarkable to note the display of militarization of the Lebanese Armed Forces celebrations on their Martyrs’ Day. It led to the belief that the interest of taking up arms has once again begun to find its place in the consciousness of groups.

Political leaders, officials and bank owners have sent their families abroad.

So, Lebanon is waiting for war amidst unprecedented civil and political fractures. As for the language of treason issued by Hezbollah and its media, which targeted the Lebanese Christian forces and even the Patriarchate, it reflected that we are going to war with a second dagger in our side — and that Prime Minister Mikati cannot somehow grant legitimacy to those (Hezbollah) who took the decision to go to war on behalf of the Lebanese.

But we do not have time to mourn our situation, as war is at our doorstep. Political leaders, officials and bank owners have sent their families abroad. Fear meanwhile has occupied the hearts of the poor as war is hovering over their heads. Those are the people whom Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah addressed in his latest appearance, calling on them to return to their homes after he “fulfilled his promise” and responded to the Israeli assassination of senior Hezbollah official Fouad Shukr.

Only option

The Lebanese authorities have nothing to say about the war. No evacuation plan, no relief projects, and this is before we ask them if they have an opinion on the war or the ability to control losses.

In light of this situation, we in Lebanon have only one real option, which is to resign ourselves to the will of Allah.

Something has changed in the U.S. position on the war on Lebanon. The visit of the American general to the Israeli army command in the north is an indicator that must be watched carefully. As for the intensity of the raids, specifically on sites in Syria, it is not separate from the escalation of the war discourse — anticipating tactical interruption of military supply fronts.

So, we must buckle up again in preparation for the imminent war.

*Originally published Sep. 18, 2024, this article was updated Sep. 19 with new details of the walkie-talkie attacks.