-Analysis-
BEIRUT — At 4:40 a.m. on the last Sunday of August, residents in southern Lebanon woke up to a terrifying roar in the sky. It was a squadron of 100 Israeli fighter jets launching at least 40 airstrikes, supported by heavy artillery shelling. A few minutes later, 340 Katyusha rockets were launched from the Lebanese side towards the Galilee and Golan Heights, followed by a large number of drones.
The sounds of the explosions were so terrifying that people thought that “the Inevitable Event” was taking place: all-out war had finally become a reality. Hezbollah would soon be opening its tunnels for fighters to cross the northern settlements towards Jerusalem, and that the air strikes carried out by Israeli fighters were paving the way for an Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon.
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But it soon became clear that the security situation, which seemed to have suddenly collapsed without warning, had been under control from the beginning — or even before it began. It had all been carefully planned, each step agreed upon with great understanding, coordination and consideration.
The operation ended within limits that did not fundamentally harm either party, and which therefore did not require a broader responses or total war, nor did it change the map of confrontations or understandings.
On the ground, both warring parties were performing yet another chapter in the routine theatrical production of responding to attacks in a way that displays their respective fortitude, while being careful not to let one outdo the other.
Theatrical performance
The director of this play is Washington, which had controlled the performance and decided the result before the show began. It was a professional performance by each player. On the part of Hezbollah, the response was restricted. It went a little beyond the rules of engagement, but not too far. The important thing is that it did not cause any real harm. Israel, for its part, launched a massive preemptive attack, but did not aim at any strategic target.
All of it without resulting in the injury of a single fighter.
After the operation ended, Hezbollah issued a statement announcing that it avenged the killing of its commander Fouad Shukr, by launching an attack that extended deep into Israel. It said it targeted 11 military sites within the rules of engagement. Israel, meanwhile, announced that it had carried out a preemptive strike on Hezbollah targets in the south and the Bekaa valley. It said it destroyed thousands of missile launchers.
In parallel with the data movement, social media users circulated photos of chicken farms in the Upper Galilee that were directly hit by Hezbollah missiles. Others posted video of Israeli warplanes setting on fire the valleys, deserts, and mountains on both banks of the Litani River — all without resulting in the injury of a single fighter, or even the destruction of a wall on the side of the road. Still, both sides found reason to cheer..
Scoring points
In the evening, the official statements of both sides was aimed at scoring points, and exaggerating what each had achieved. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, appeared to confirm that the resistance had succeeded in establishing the equation of Tel Aviv versus the southern suburb of Beirut, by targeting two strategic sites near Tel Aviv.
Hezbollah targeted a Mossad center and an air base, and according to Nasrallah, both sites were in charge of the assassination of Shukr. He boasted about the victory achieved by the “resistance” and its precise security breaches.
The war of support continues, even if it has proven to be futile.
Nasrallah acknowledged that the enemy launched this number of raids after sensing the movement of the fighters, 15 minutes before the operation. This was also confirmed by Tel Aviv, which claimed that the targets destroyed by the Israeli Air Force were a series of dangerous threats and were “removed them through preemptive strikes.”
Nasrallah also said that the initial response to Shukr’s assassination was accomplished. Meanwhile, the Israeli military spokesman said that the army is preparing offensive plans on the northern front and is awaiting the political decision.
In the language of the people of southern Lebanon, this means nothing but that their hometowns will remain an open arena for more missiles and bombs and that the residents will remain displaced and homeless for an unknown period.
It means that Hezbollah’s “war of support” for Gazans continues, even if it has proven to be futile, and is no longer practically linked to the genocidal war happening there. Indeed, it’s rather up to the Iranian negotiator who is looking for a victory in the cease-fire talks in Gaza and attempts to to implement UN Security Council resolution on Israel-Hezbollah conflict.
