*Updated Sep. 24, 2024 at 6:40 p.m. with new information on the ground in southern Lebanon.
-Analysis-
PARIS — António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, has no power beyond his words. On Sunday, he warned that Lebanon risked becoming “another Gaza.” On Monday, his prophecy came true: Israel applied the “Gaza method” to southern Lebanon.
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More than 1,000 targets were bombed all day by Israeli jets. The toll: more than 550 dead and more than 1,600 wounded, tens of thousands displaced; and even a bombardment in the southern suburbs of Beirut to eliminate Hezbollah’s new military chief, appointed after the death of his predecessor last week. This is the heaviest single-day toll in Lebanon since the war of 2006.
Until last week, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah followed an unspoken rule of the game: proportionality. Since the pro-Iranian movement launched hostilities on October 8 in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza, exchanges of fire have obeyed this rule. The escalation, step by step, for months now, has been taking place within this framework. But that is finished
Stalling until U.S. elections?
For weeks, the government had been threatening Hezbollah with massive military action if it continued to prevent the return of the tens of thousands of Israeli civilians evacuated from the northern cities. Last week, the government added the return of these residents to its war aims.
Why now? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sensed a double opportunity. The first is the temptation to weaken Hezbollah, which has suffered several setbacks without really reacting, a sign that it does not want a direct confrontation.
Hezbollah’s credibility is at stake in its own camp
Israel has multiplied its blows to the Shiite movement over the last eight days, from the explosion of digital pagers and walkie-talkies to the elimination of several top commanders, and now these massive bombardments. The movement’s credibility is at stake in its own camp.
Double risk
The other opportunity is that of maintaining a state of war that suits Netanyahu politically: this is what many Israelis and his opposition think, convinced that he is stalling until the American election on November 5, and, he hopes, the victory of Donald Trump.
There is a constant risk of the conflict spreading, but Israel believes that the balance of power is in its favor. The risk is two fold: first, with the hypothesis of an Israeli ground intervention, which would radically change the situation.
Can Israel re-establish security for the inhabitants of the north by air alone, by destroying Hezbollah’s missile stockpiles?
Who’s counting?
This seems doubtful, and some voices, even within the government, are pushing for the creation of a new border security zone, even if the one of the 1980s and 1990s has left bad memories.
The second unknown factor is the attitude of Iran, which is witnessing the considerable weakening of its main ally in the Arab world, Hezbollah. Iran too would lose credibility if it allowed its main “proxy” to be crushed, but it too does not want a direct confrontation with Israel, and no doubt, inevitably, with the United States.
For the time being, the Israelis are enjoying their advantage, no more concerned than they have been in Gaza for the past 11 months, neither about the number of victims, nor about the horror that the extension of the war into the battered country of Lebanon is causing throughout the world.
