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PARIS — This is one of the mysteries of the confrontation that began almost a year ago: the United States, the world’s leading power and the singularly influential outside player in the Middle East, seems powerless. The escalation of violence that began last week between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah is a further demonstration: Washington does not want the full-scale war to spread to Lebanon — but the escalation continues inexorably, threatening to set the whole region ablaze.
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This has been the case for months. U.S. President Joe Biden has openly criticized the number of civilian casualties in Israel’s war in Gaza, without changing the methods, or the balance sheet. The United States has also been negotiating a ceasefire in Gaza for months, and like a mirage, this prospect grows more distant every time we get closer.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Cairo for this purpose when Israel launched its unprecedented attack through Hezbollah’s pagers: Blinken left the region without passing through Israel.
American inaction
Since then, Biden’s entourage has been insisting that he doesn’t want escalation in Lebanon, that it’s not in Israel’s interest. But the facts on the ground show Washington’s impotence: 50 dead in Friday’s bombardment south of Beirut, killing key figures of the pro-Iranian movement; and it continued through the weekend between Hezbollah fire and Israeli retaliation.
Biden is an old-fashioned Democrat, committed to the defense of Israel at all costs.
Part of the explanation for this discrepancy lies in the complex relationship between Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The two men have known each other for decades, and their relationship is devoid of the slightest trust. Netanyahu, in fact, is not hiding his preference for Donald Trump and the Republicans.
But the American president is an old-fashioned Democrat, committed to the defense of Israel at all costs, from a generation marked by the memory of the Shoah: he has never twisted the arm of Netanyahu and his far-right coalition, even when publicly annoyed by their positions.
De-escalation through escalation?
In the context of the U.S. election campaign underway, this is even more sensitive. Washington doesn’t want to do anything that could be used against Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris, who is facing Trump in November. The result is that American influence is undermined.
The United States doesn’t want a war
The United States doesn’t want a war that would drag it in to combat, especially in light of Iran’s regional role. With 45 days to go before the presidential election, a rise in tensions involving American forces is the last thing the White House wants. The Americans give the impression of letting Netanyahu dictate the pace and direction of events, according to his own agenda.
The United States now confides that it understands the Israeli strategy of “de-escalation through escalation”. Clearly, if you like, it means waging war to avoid it.
It’s likely that this American inability to make its voice heard, while the U.S. supplies arms and diplomatically protects Israel, will continue until November 5. Everyone knows it, Israelis and Americans alike: anything can happen between now and then, including all-out regional war.
