-Analysis-
PARIS — One of the characteristics of our time is that many frozen or simmering conflicts are being rekindled. The reason is simple: with the United Nations marginalized, there is no longer any international arbitrator or global police, which is enough to boost the confidence of predators.
On Monday, the Korean peninsula joined the list of regions of tension around the world, with North Korea accusing South Korea of sending drones over its capital to drop leaflets. Pyongyang said that its artillery units on the border with the South were on alert and ready to fire.
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North Korea has a habit of staging outbursts, threatening missile launches or parades that are never followed action. But Korea experts say this stance should not be taken lightly. And the South Korean government is doing just that by saying it is ready to respond to any event. Seoul has not confirmed sending the drones, nor has any private organization, unlike the propaganda balloon campaigns that have created problems in the past.
Serious situation
A few months ago, Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker, two American experts on Korea, wrote in an analysis that tensions in the peninsula are at their most serious since 1950, which is to say since the Korean War. This conflict, the first of the Cold War, ended in 1953 with an armistice but without a peace treaty: The two Koreas are technically still in a state of war.
The experts said they were convinced that, like his grandfather Kim Il-sung, the current North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, “has made the strategic decision to go to war.” They cautiously added: “We do not know when or how Kim plans to pull the trigger, but the danger is already far beyond the routine warnings in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo about Pyongyang’s ‘provocations.’”
Since that article, there have been several moments of tension, including a strange episode, with balloons loaded with excrement sent from the North to the South, one of which landed at the South Korean presidency in Seoul. But that never led to an official declaration of war.
Changed context
What has changed? The international context.
North Korea has moved closer to Russia and is getting involved in the war in Ukraine; not only by sending ammunition, but also, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, by sending military personnel. Yet to be verified, this would represent a greater commitment.
The context also includes the United States, South Korea and Japan cooperation against China but also, obviously, against North Korea. A proven nuclear power, North Korea looks unfavorably on this rapprochement among its adversaries.
The honeymoon between Trump and Kim in 2018 and 2019 ended in failure.
Finally, let’s not forget the US presidential election in three weeks’ time, and the honeymoon between then President Donald Trump and Kim in 2018 and 2019, which ended in failure. Since then, we’ve returned to attacks on imperialism, but what will happen if Trump is elected on Nov. 5?
For all these reasons, the Korean Peninsula is going through an unpredictable moment, with a North Korean regime sitting on several dozen nuclear warheads, and obeying its own rationality. Danger ahead!
